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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 河北省“十三五”粮食安全状况预测 农业展望 2016,12 (12) 31-37
Position: Home > Articles > Forecast of Grain Security in Hebei Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan Agricultural Outlook 2016,12 (12) 31-37

河北省“十三五”粮食安全状况预测

作  者：
张新仕;侯亮;蒲娜娜;李英杰;胡玲
单  位：
河北省黄骅市农业局;河北省农林科学院;河北省农林科学院农业信息与经济研究所
关键词：
粮食安全;回归分析;趋势外推法;粮食供给;粮食需求;河北省
摘  要：
对"十三五"期间河北省粮食安全状况进行了预测分析,得出河北省粮食自给率达到95%以上,粮食供求基本平稳,粮食安全状态向好,粮食总产量能够满足全面建成小康社会的粮食需求。但长期来看,河北省粮食安全状况仍存隐忧,主要为:耕地面积减少,质量下降;农业资源偏紧,生态环境恶化;粮食价格受到成本"地板"抬升和价格"天花板"封顶的双重挤压;从事农业的劳动力减少等。最后,从建设高标准农田和商品粮基地、改造中低产田和盐碱地、建立粮食安全预警系统等方面提出了建议。
译  名：
Forecast of Grain Security in Hebei Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan
作  者：
Zhang Xinshi;Hou Liang;Pu Nana;Li Yingjie;Hu Ling;Wang Guirong;Institutue of Agricultural Information and Economics,Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences;Science and Technology Division,Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences;Agricultural Bureau of Huanghua City;
关键词：
grain security;;regression analysis;;trend extrapolation;;grain supply;;grain demand;;Hebei province
摘  要：
By forecasting and analyzing the grain security in Hebei province during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period, the authors got following results: the food self-sufficiency rate in Hebei province would reach more than 95%, the supply and demand of grain would basically be stable, grain security would be in a safe state, and the total grain output would be able to meet the grain demand of completing the process of building an affluent society in all aspects. But the authors also pointed out that, in the long term, grain security would still be accompanied by a series of underlying apprehension, for instance, decrease of farmland area and decline of farmland quality, agricultural resources being not in abundance and ecological environment deteriorating, grain prices squeezed by cost "floor" uplifting and price ceiling, reduction of labor force engaging in agriculture, etc..Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward from constructing the high standard farmland and commodity grain base, remodeling the low-yield farmland and saline land, setting up food security early warning system and other aspects.

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