Pan, Song;Peng, De-liang;Li, Ying-mei;Chen, Zhi-jie;Zhai, Ying-yan;Liu, Chen;Hong, Bo

Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Plant Protect, State Key Lab Biol Plant Dis & Insect Pests, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China;Shaanxi Acad Sci, Bioagr Inst Shaanxi, Shaanxi Key Lab Plant Nematol, Xian 710043, Peoples R China

Meloidogyne enterolobii;species distribution model;MaxEnt;climate change;future climate scenarios;centroid change

In recent years, Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas. However, the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear. Under the current climate scenario, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M. enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with the occurrence data of this species. Furthermore, the potential distributions of M. enterolobii were projected under three future climate scenarios (BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1) for the periods 2050s and 2090s. Changes in the potential distribution were also predicted under different climate conditions. The results showed that highly suitable regions for M. enterolobii were concentrated in Africa, South America, Asia, and North America between latitudes 30 & DEG;S to 30 & DEG;N. Bio16 (precipitation of the wettest quarter), bio10 (mean temperature of the warmest quarter), and bio11 (mean temperature of the coldest quarter) were the variables contributing most in predicting potential distributions of M. enterolobii. In addition, the potential suitable areas for M. enterolobii will shift toward higher latitudes under future climate scenarios. This study provides a theoretical basis for controlling and managing this nematode.