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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 气候变化下水肥及CO_2对冬小麦生长的影响模拟 中国农学通报 2015,31 (33) 27-36
Position: Home > Articles > Simulation of Irrigation, Fertilization and CO_2 Concentration on Winter Wheat Yield Under the Background of Global Climate Change Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2015,31 (33) 27-36

气候变化下水肥及CO_2对冬小麦生长的影响模拟

作  者：
路婧琦;崔耀平;张帅帅;闵敏;冯天伟
单  位：
河南大学环境与规划学院/黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心;河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心
关键词：
DSSAT;冬小麦;生长期;产量;CO2浓度
摘  要：
从机理上研究冬小麦最优水肥管理措施及其对大气CO2浓度变化的适应性,对保障粮食安全、促进农业可持续发展有重要意义。基于DSSATv4.5模型中的CERES-Wheat模块,模拟开封市冬小麦2001—2010年气象条件变化对冬小麦开花期、成熟期的影响;设定42种水肥组合方式,分析水肥因素对冬小麦产量的影响,同时选取出最优水肥组合方式;在最优水肥组合方式支持下,模拟不同大气CO2浓度水平下冬小麦的生长状况,分析CO2的施肥效应。研究结果表明:冬小麦开花期、成熟期随降水量的增加有所提前;生长期平均温增加能够明显促进冬小麦开花期、成熟期提前;灌溉量、施肥量的增加对冬小麦产量带来先快速增长后趋于稳定的增产效果,但过量施肥或灌溉均会导致不同程度的减产;大气CO2浓度增高对冬小麦有明显的增产效果,同时其各项生产指标也随CO2浓度增高而表现出平稳增长的趋势。可得出结论:冬小麦开花期、成熟期较晚的年份其生长期平均温均在11.0℃以下;控制施肥量300 kg/hm2、灌溉量200 mm左右的水肥组合能够达到理想的冬小麦高产节约种植效果;未来40年的大气CO2浓度增高会对冬小麦种植带来明显的增产效应。
译  名：
Simulation of Irrigation, Fertilization and CO_2 Concentration on Winter Wheat Yield Under the Background of Global Climate Change
作  者：
Lu Jingqi;Cui Yaoping;Zhang Shuaishuai;Min Min;Feng Tianwei;Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization/College of Environment and Planning,Henan University;The Center for Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development of Henan University;
关键词：
DSSAT;;winter wheat;;growing season;;yield;;CO2 concentration
摘  要：
Studying the mechanism of optimal irrigation, fertilization management and atmospheric CO2 concentration of winter wheat is important to food security and agricultural sustainability. This paper simulatedthe impact of meteorological condition on the anthesis and maturity period of winter wheat during 2001 to 2010 based on the CERES-Wheat model in DSSATv4.5. The impact of irrigation and fertilization on winter wheatyield was studied by 42 kinds of compound modes and the optimal compound mode of irrigation andfertilization management was chosen. The winter wheat yield in different CO2-concentration conditions wassimulated under the optimal irrigation and fertilization management. The results showed that the anthesis and maturity period of winter wheat advanced as the precipitation and mean temperature in growing seasonincreased. The winter wheat yield increased and then stayed stable with the increase of irrigation and fertilizeramount, but excessive irrigation and fertilization would decrease the yield. The increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration had an obviously yield-increasing effect on winter wheat, and other production indexes showed asteady increase trend. The years whose mean temperature was less than 11.0℃ had later anthesis and maturityperiod; the compound mode of 300 kg/hm2 fertilization amount and 200 mm irrigation amount could achieve theideal effect of winter wheat yield; the increase atmospheric CO2 concentration in the future 40 years could bringsignificantly yield-increasing effect on winter wheat.

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