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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 桃蚜种群消长规律预测模型的建立与应用 山西农业科学 2019 (7) 1246-1249
Position: Home > Articles > 桃蚜种群消长规律预测模型的建立与应用 Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences 2019 (7) 1246-1249

桃蚜种群消长规律预测模型的建立与应用

作  者：
刘艳红;张权义;贾栋
单  位：
山西农业大学农学院
关键词：
桃蚜;消长模型;微分方程;存活率;羽化率
摘  要：
为了科学确定桃蚜的防治适期,提高其防治效果,根据桃蚜在辣椒上的生长发育数据建立了桃蚜种群的消长规律模型.该模型是一个分段函数,其中,第1阶段只有若虫,为常函数;第2阶段是若虫和成虫共存期,为一阶线性微分方程组,主要根据桃蚜在辣椒上的发育时间、羽化率和死亡率构建;第3阶段只有成虫,成虫数量是一个递减的复合函数.将该模型应用于甘蓝上桃蚜种群变化规律的预测,结果显示,桃蚜在甘蓝上的实际消长规律与模型吻合程度较高.表明所建模型可以用于桃蚜种群消长规律的预测预报.
作  者：
LIU Yanhong;ZHANG Quanyi;JIA Dong;College of Agronomy,Shanxi Agricultural University;Key Laboratory of IPM of Crop Pests on the Northwest Loess Plateaus of Ministry of Agriculture,State Key Laboratory of Crop Stress Biology for Arid Areas,Northwest A & F University;College of Art & Science,Shanxi Agricultural University;
单  位：
LIU Yanhong%ZHANG Quanyi%JIA Dong%College of Agronomy,Shanxi Agricultural University%Key Laboratory of IPM of Crop Pests on the Northwest Loess Plateaus of Ministry of Agriculture,State Key Laboratory of Crop Stress Biology for Arid Areas,Northwest A & F University%College of Art & Science,Shanxi Agricultural University
关键词：
Myzus persicae;;fluctuation model;;ordinary differential equation;;survival rate;;emergence rate
摘  要：
To determine the appropriate control period of Myzus persicae Sulzer, enhance the control efficiency, a population fluctuation model for this aphid was built based on the growth and developmental data of Myzus persicae rearing on pepper. The model was a section function, in which the first phase just containing nymphs was a constant function, the second phase containing both nymphs and adults was a set of linear first-order ordinary differential equations based mainly on the developmental time, emergence rate and mortality rate of the aphid rearing in the laboratory on pepper, and the third phase just containing adults was a decreasing compound function. When the model was applicated to predict the change rule of Myzus persicae population rearing on cabbage, the result found that the real fluctuation rule by experiment matched well with the rule predicted by the model. It suggests that the model established can be used to predict the fluctuation rule of Myzus persicae population rearing on other host plants.

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