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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于EnKF-MCRP模型的生态用地扩张模拟研究 农业机械学报 2016,47 (9) 285-293
Position: Home > Articles > Simulation on Ecological Land Use Expansion Based on En KF-MCRP Model Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery 2016,47 (9) 285-293

基于EnKF-MCRP模型的生态用地扩张模拟研究

作  者：
于强;岳德鹏;Di Yang;张启斌;马欢;李宇彤
单  位：
国土资源部土地整治中心;北京林业大学精准林业北京市重点实验室;佛罗里达大学地理系
关键词：
生态用地;数据同化;En KF-MCRP模型;磴口县
摘  要：
以生态脆弱区典型县域磴口县为研究区,基于2002、2007、2012、2015年4期遥感影像解译数据,将数据同化技术引入生态源地的变化模拟中,考虑生态障碍和生态阻力构建En KF-MCRP模型,进行磴口县生态用地的变化模拟。结果表明,引入数据同化技术的En KF-CA/Markov模型的模拟总精度达到82.4%,数据同化能够减少误差的积累。根据扩展能力磴口县生态源地共分为5个等级,其中3、4、5级生态源地的空间布局形成东北-西南、西北-西南的沙漠化防护格局。引入生态源地变化的En KF-MCRP模型的生态用地扩张模拟精度最高,生态用地面积与空间布局最接近实际情况,方差达到0.4。此研究可为当前以及未来的生态用地规划和管理提供科学根据。
译  名：
Simulation on Ecological Land Use Expansion Based on En KF-MCRP Model
作  者：
Yu Qiang;Yue Depeng;Di Yang;Zhang Qibin;Ma Huan;Li Yutong;Beijing Key Laboratory of Precision Forestry,Beijing Forestry University;Department of Geography University of Florida;Center for Land Consolidation,Ministry of Land and Resources;
关键词：
ecological land;;data assimilation;;En KF-MCRP model;;Dengkou County
摘  要：
In the ecologically vulnerable area which locates in northwest arid and semiarid areas,ecological land is the important guarantee to maintain the security and stability of regional ecological environment. Studying the simulation of ecological land use change is of great significance. Accordingly,based on the typical ecologically vulnerable area—Dengkou County,this paper simulates ecological land use evolution of Dengkou County,using the four remote sensing image interpretation data of 2002,2007,2012 and 2015. Taking ecological eco-resistance barriers and En KF-MCRP model into account,an ecological resistance surface was built. The En KF-MCRP model was constructed to simulate the evolution of ecological sources considering the ecological sources change,ecological source level,distance and base surface resistance characteristics. The results showed that the combination of data assimilation and En KF-CA/Markov model made a total accuracy of 82. 4%,by using ensemble Kalman filter,the model can accumulate less errors and improve the accuracy of simulation,i. e.,data assimilation can reduce the accumulation of errors. According to the expandability,ecological sources of Dengkou County were divided into five grades,of which the spatial layout of 3,4,5 grades formed the northeast-southwest and northwest-southwest pattern of desertification prevention. The building of En KF-MCRP which takes the ecological source evolution into consideration made the highest precision. And the area of ecological sources and spatial distribution were the closest to the reality,of which the variance met 0. 4. Differentlevels of ecological sources and ecological barriers were used to modify the model,which can improve the accuracy of the simulation results. This study could provide a scientific basis for the current and future ecological land planning and management.

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