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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于判别分析预测马铃薯甲虫发生与出土时间 生物安全学报 2024,33 (1) 19-23
Position: Home > Articles > Prediction of Leptinotarsa decemlineata occurrence and aboveground period based on linear discriminant analysis Journal of Biosafety 2024,33 (1) 19-23

基于判别分析预测马铃薯甲虫发生与出土时间

作  者：
廖江花;牛富帅;李超;刘娟;关志坚
单  位：
新疆农业大学农学院;察布查尔县农业技术推广站
关键词：
马铃薯甲虫;温度;发生等级;出土时间;判别分析
摘  要：
[目的]马铃薯甲虫是马铃薯生产过程中的毁灭性害虫.温度是影响马铃薯甲虫发生的重要因素,明确马铃薯甲虫越冬期及发生期的温度对其发生的影响,可为该害虫未来发生情况的预测和防治提供理论支持.[方法]采用逐步判别分析法对1994-2021年马铃薯甲虫越冬及发生期(上一年12月-当年9 月)新疆察布查尔县马铃薯甲虫发生等级及出土时间进行判别分类,建立发生预测模型.[结果]在训练i组中,马铃薯甲虫的发生等级、出土时间判别准确率分别为100.00%、80.00%;在预测组中,马铃薯甲虫的发生等级、出土时间总判别准确率分别为69.23%、76.92%,认为判别结果较可信.[结论]通过对影响发生程度、出土时间判别的因素筛选发现,察布查尔县马铃薯甲虫的出土和发生判别均受到4月温度的影响.
译  名：
Prediction of Leptinotarsa decemlineata occurrence and aboveground period based on linear discriminant analysis
关键词：
Leptinotarsa decemlineata%temperature%occurrence grade%aboveground period%discriminant analysis
摘  要：
[Aim]Leptinotarsa decemlineata is a destructive pest affecting potato production.Temperature is an important factor af-fecting the occurrence of L.decemlineata.The influence of this factor on L.decemlineata occurrence during its overwintering period and occurrence duration was determined.Our study provides theoretical support for the future prediction and control of L.decemlin-eata occurrence and insights into the prediction of the occurrence of this pest in other areas.[Method]We collected samples of L.decemlineata and used the stepwise discriminant analysis method to discriminate and classify the occurrence degree and aboveground periods of these beetles in Qapqal County from 1994 to 2021.[Result]In the training group,the accuracy of the occurrence degree and aboveground period of L.decemlineata were 100.00%and 80.00%,respectively.In the prediction group,the accuracies of the occurrence degree and aboveground period of L.decemlineata were 69.23%and 76.92%,respectively;the results were considered to be credible.[Conclusion]Through screening,the factors affecting the occurrence degree and aboveground period,the temperature in April were found to affect both the aboveground period and occurrence of L.decemlineata in Qapqal County.

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