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Position: Home > Articles > Tobacco Yield Prediction Model Based on SPSS Statistical Software in Baihe County Crop Research 2012,26 (1) 84-86

白河烟区烤烟产量多元线性回归模型年景预测

作  者:
李淑娥;王智慧;刘开平;杨居健
单  位:
安康市烟草公司白河分公司;湖南农业大学农学院
关键词:
烤烟;产量;预测模型;气候条件
摘  要:
将烤烟实际产量分离为趋势产量和气象产量,根据1997~2011年白河县气象资料和烤烟产量资料,采用SPSS统计软件分别建立趋势产量和气候产量回归模型,最终建立产量回归模型:Y=-89 321·903+43·455T+41.972x_1+48.276x_2。并对历年产量进行检验,结果表明,预测精度最高为100%,最低为92%,平均精度为97%。该模型具有较高的信度和实用性,可作为白河烤烟产量预报的有效工具之一。
译  名:
Tobacco Yield Prediction Model Based on SPSS Statistical Software in Baihe County
作  者:
LI SHU-e;WANG Zhi-hui;LIU Kai-ping;YANG Ju-jian;College of Agronomy,Hunan Agricultural University;Baihe Branch of Ankang Tobacco Company;
关键词:
Flue-cured tobacco;;Production;;Model;;Climate condition
摘  要:
Actual production was separated into the trend of flue-cured tobacco yield and meteorological yield,according to the meteorological data and flue-cured tobacco production in 1997-2011 in Baihe,SPSS statistical software were used to establish trends of yield and meteorological yield regression model,and the production regression model eventual was established.Then the production of calendar year was tested,and the maximum prediction accuracy was 100%,the smallest accuracy was 92%,the average accuracy was 97%.The prediction model had a high reliability and practicality,it could be an effective tool for quantitative prediction.

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