中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会
Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS China Association of Agricultural Science Societies
En
Ch
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 主办

AI检索

订阅

返回顶部
当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的县域干旱预测——以关中平原腹地合阳县为例 山东农业大学学报(自然科学版) 2014 (3) 403-409
Position: Home > Articles > Drought Prediction in the County Based on Gray GM(1,1)Model——Taking Heyang County in Guanzhong Plain as a case Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition) 2014 (3) 403-409

基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的县域干旱预测——以关中平原腹地合阳县为例

作  者：
方蕾;刘科伟;马锟;潘泽龙;刘美辰
单  位：
西北大学城市与环境学院;华夏幸福基业股份有限公司;湖南省第一测绘院
关键词：
县域;干旱预测;GM(1,1)模型;供需平衡
摘  要：
从县域角度出发,利用合阳县1962~2009年降水资料,在分析合阳县降水量变化及特点的前提下,利用GM(1,1)灰色模型对其未来干旱年进行预测,之后在分析合阳县水资源供需平衡的基础上提出抗旱建议。结果表明:(1)降水系列呈现降水总量少、降水年内分配不均匀、降水大致有周期性特征、降水在相对的极度降雨后会出现相对极度的干旱、干旱逐渐递增且周期内降雨变化幅度增大等基本规律;(2)预测合阳县将在2016~2017、2023~2024、2030~2031年期间内发生干旱;(3)当遇到历史枯水年(即保障程度达到95%)时,水量供需不平衡。建议合阳县今后在组织、预案、信息、物资、技术、政策等方面做足保障以抗旱。
译  名：
Drought Prediction in the County Based on Gray GM(1,1)Model——Taking Heyang County in Guanzhong Plain as a case
作  者：
FANG Lei;LIU Ke-wei;MA Kun;PANG Ze-long;LIU Mei-chen;Collage of Urban and Environment Science, Northwest University;The First Surveying and Mapping Institute of Hunan Province;China Fortune Land Development Co. Ltd;
关键词：
County;;drought prediction;;GM(1,1) model;;supply and demand balance
摘  要：
From the perspective of the county, the use of precipitation of Heyang County from 1962 to 2009, under the analysis of changes in precipitation and characteristics, used GM(1,1) gray model to predict its future dry years. Then made the drought recommendations after the analysis of water supply and demand balance. The results showed that:(1) Total precipitation series presents less precipitation, uneven distribution of rainfall during the year, roughly cyclical characteristics of precipitation, precipitation in the opposite extreme rainfall will occur relatively extreme drought, drought is gradually increasing and changing rainfall cycle amplitude increases.(2) The future will come droughts occurred during the period between 2016 and 2017, between 2023 and 2024, between 2030 and 2031.(3) When experiencing history dry year(That level of protection up to 95%), the supply and demand is unbalanced. Finally, recommend Heyang County to done to protect the future in terms of organization, plans, information, materials, technologies and policies to drought.

相似文章

导出引用
计量
文章访问数: 8
HTML全文浏览量: 0
PDF下载量: 0

所属期刊

推荐期刊

友情链接Friendly link
农业信息研究所Agricultural information institute 农业智能知识服务平台Agricultural intelligent knowledge service platform 农业学术服务平台Agricultural Knowledge Service System 中国知网CNKI 维普网VIP 万方WANFANG DATA
联系我们Contact us

电话Tell：010-82109652-808

邮箱E-mail：agrijournal@caas.cn

服务Service
关于我们About us 意见建议Opinions and suggest
版权说明Copyright
单位：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 © 2017中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 ICP备案号：京ICP备09089781号-46