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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于GAM的长江口鱼类资源时空分布及影响因素 水产学报 2020 (6) 936-946
Position: Home > Articles > Analysis of spatiotemporal fish density distribution and its influential factors based on generalized additive model(GAM) in the Yangtze River estuary Journal of Fisheries of China 2020 (6) 936-946

基于GAM的长江口鱼类资源时空分布及影响因素

作  者：
马金;黄金玲;陈锦辉;李拜;赵静;高春霞;王学昉;田思泉
单  位：
关键词：
鱼类资源;时空分布;环境因子影响效应;广义加性模型;长江口
摘  要：
根据2006至2017年长江口及其邻近海域鱼类资源调查,运用广义加性模型研究长江口鱼类资源密度与环境因子之间的关系,并对2017年鱼类资源密度的时空分布进行预测。结果显示,春夏秋冬四个季节最佳GAM偏差解释率分别为69.6%、55.9%、51.4%和47.4%,交叉验证回归线斜率的平均效应为0.62～0.88。盐度、水温和溶解氧是影响长江口鱼类资源密度的主要环境影响因子且在不同季节对鱼类资源密度有不同的影响机制。总体上,在春、夏、秋季,盐度与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向相关性;在夏、秋、冬季,水温对鱼类资源密度有显著影响,在秋季与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向相关性;在春、秋、冬季,溶解氧对鱼类资源密度有显著影响,在冬季与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向线性相关。研究表明,2017年夏季鱼类资源密度较高;在长江口南支的自然延伸水域存在鱼类资源密度的相对低值,在崇明岛向海自然延伸方向水域存在鱼类资源密度的相对高值。后续研究将对长江口鱼类资源进行不同生态类型区分,以期更加准确地掌握影响各生态类型鱼类时空分布的环境因素及其时空分布信息。
译  名：
Analysis of spatiotemporal fish density distribution and its influential factors based on generalized additive model(GAM) in the Yangtze River estuary
作  者：
MA Jin;HUANG Jinling;CHEN Jinhui;LI Bai;ZHAO Jing;GAO Chunxia;WANG Xuefang;TIAN Siquan;College of Marine Ecology and Environment, Shanghai Ocean University;College of Marine Culture and Law, Shanghai Ocean University;Center for Protection and Research of Aquatic Wild Living Plants and Animals in Shanghai;School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine;National Distant-water Fisheries Engineering Research Center, Shanghai Ocean University;
关键词：
fisheries resources;;spatiotemporal distribution;;impacts of environmental factors;;generalized additive models(GAM);;the Yangtze River estuary
摘  要：
Understanding the relationship between fisheries resources and environmental factors, and also the spatial and temporal distribution of fisheries resources, plays an important role in the process of making fishery management and protection strategies. Under the policy background of "the Yangtze River Great Protection", carrying out such research has an important ecological significance for fisheries protection and recovery in the Yangtze estuary. Based on the survey data from 2006 to 2017 in the Yangtze estuary, relationship between fish density and environmental factors was stusied based on GAM, meanwhile, the seasonal distribution of fish density in 2017 was predicted. The results showed that explained deviance in the seasonal optimal model was 69.6%, 55.9%, 51.4% and 47.4% respectively, and the mean slope of regression line of 100-time cross validation ranged from 0.62 to 0.88. Salinity, water temperature and dissolved oxygen(DO) were found to be the significant environmental factors. In general, in spring, summer and autumn, salinity was considered to have a positive relationship with fish density. In summer, autumn and winter, water temperature was found to be the significant environmental factor, and in Autumn, a positive relationship was found. In spring, autumn and winter, DO was found to be the significant environmental factor, and in winter, a positive linear relationship was found. In 2017, there was a relativelg high value of fish density in summer. In the four seasons,relatively low value of fish density was found to exist in the natural extension waters of the southern branch of the Yangtze estuary. In the natural extension waters of Chongming Island to the sea, the fish density is relatively higher.

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