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Position: Home > Articles > Forecast System for Origin Environment Quality of Agricultural Product Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery 2013 (2) 226-230

农产品产地环境质量预测系统设计

作  者：
咏梅;张漫;王圣伟;刘刚
单  位：
中国农业大学现代精细农业系统集成研究教育部重点实验室
关键词：
农产品;产地环境;质量预测;Flex;指数平滑
摘  要：
基于数据库技术、ArcGIS Server技术、Flex技术及模型理论构建了农产品产地环境质量污染预测系统。该平台以VS 2008、Flash builder 4.6为开发环境,实现了农产品产地环境信息的查询、环境污染物的空间分析以及农产品产地环境污染预测等功能。根据农产品产地重金属污染的时间序列特征,采用指数平滑预测模型对土壤重金属的污染进行了预测。在对2010年1月~2013年4月重金属监测数据分析的基础上,建立了6种重金属浓度预测模型。研究结果表明,指数平滑预测模型能较好地拟合重金属污染变化规律,预测精度在90%左右。
译  名：
Forecast System for Origin Environment Quality of Agricultural Product
作  者：
Yong Mei;Zhang Man;Wang Shengwei;Liu Gang;Key Laboratory of Modern Precision Agriculture System Integration Research,Ministry of Education,China Agricultural University;College of Computer Science and Engineering,Northwest Normal University;
关键词：
Agricultural products Origin environment Quality forecast Flex Exponential smoothing
摘  要：
Forecast system for origin environment quality of agricultural product was proposed based on the database technology,ArcGIS Server,Flex and model theory.Taking VS 2008 and Flash builder 4.6 as the development environment,the proposed system could be used for the query of agricultural environmental information,the spatial analysis of pollutant information,and the forecasting of farmland environmental pollution.Based on the time series characteristics of heavy metal pollution in origin environment,exponential smoothing forecasting model was built to predict the heavy metal pollution.According to the monitoring data of heavy metals from January 2010 to April 2013,six kinds of heavy metals concentration prediction models were established.The analysis results showed that the prediction accuracy of models were around 90%,which meant that the exponential smoothing model could better fit the variation of heavy metal pollution.

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