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Position: Home > Articles > Meteorological condition analysis and forecast model construction of wheat yellow mosaic in Pingyu county China Plant Protection 2016,36 (10) 45-49

平舆县小麦黄花叶病发生的气象条件分析和预报模型研究

作  者:
冯贺奎;臧俊岭
单  位:
河南省平舆县气象局;河南省平舆县植物保护植物检疫站
关键词:
小麦黄花叶病;气象因子分析;预报模型
摘  要:
小麦黄花叶病的发生与气象因素关系密切。为探索其相关关系和关联度,根据平舆县小麦黄花叶病发生面积和气象因子进行回归分析,建立预报模型。通过分析,小麦黄花叶病发生与秋季降水量和平均气温关系密切。通过模型拟合和预测验证,平均吻合度96.30%,预测准确性为94.03%。
译  名:
Meteorological condition analysis and forecast model construction of wheat yellow mosaic in Pingyu county
作  者:
Feng Hekui;Zang Junling;Plant Protection and Quarantine Station of Pingyu;Pingyu Meteorological Bureau;
关键词:
Wheat yellow mosaic;;analysis of meteorological factors;;prediction model
摘  要:
Occurrence of wheat yellow mosaic was closely related to meteorological factors, and correlation between them was studied. Based on the occurrence area of wheat yellow mosaic and meteorological factors in Pingyu county, regression analysis was conducted and forecast model was constructed. The results showed that the occurrence of wheat yellow mosaic disease and autumn precipitation and average temperature had close correlation of inosculation 96.30% on average,forecast accuracy was 94.03% through the model fitting and forecast verification. The forecast model with independent variables of meteorological measured values, can produce accurate and reliable data, are simple and convenient for applying, and had higher practical application value.

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