关键词：
农产品;进出口贸易;宏观数据;回顾性;实证分析
摘 要：
2023年5月之前的一系列国内国际政策松绑意味着新冠肺炎疫情的全球形势已经从紧急状态向常态化转变.然而对整个新冠肺炎疫情期间中国农产品进出口贸易宏观数据异常变动的研究极度匮乏.采用新冠肺炎疫情前3年和整个疫情3年,即2017-2022年中国农产品进出口贸易宏观数据进行统计分析,结合文献综述、数据定量分析、对比研究等方法梳理、归纳和总结了新冠肺炎疫情期间中国农产品贸易进出口形势相对于疫情前形势的变化,深入分析疫情前和整个疫情过程中我国农产品进出口贸易的特征.结果表明,新冠肺炎疫情期间我国农产品进出口贸易总额呈持续增长态势;受世界多国农产品贸易限制、国内农产品生产价格指数上升和中美贸易协议的影响,中国农产品进出口贸易逆差进一步扩大.谷物、棉花、食糖等主要农产品进出口贸易的量价波动幅度较大.总体来看,疫情下我国农产品进出口贸易的基本结构未发生变化.新冠肺炎疫情没有改变我国农业自身资源的先天禀赋,也不改变我国农业结构、贸易环境和政府农业政策.2017-2022年中国农产品进出口贸易结构总体未发生变化,但是农产品贸易指标在2020年初体现出显著突发性,农产品贸易阶段性影响显著,少数农产品贸易结构性影响显著.建议大力确国家保粮食安全底线,提高疫情风险下中国在国际农产品贸易市场上的议价能力,持续发挥中国农产品贸易的比较优势.
译 名：
Changes and Inspirations of China's Agricultural Product Import and Export Trade Situation from2017 to 2022
单 位：
School of Accounting,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510006;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information,Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Urban Agriculture in South China,Ministry of Agriculture,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510640
关键词：
Agricultural products%Foreign trade%Macro data%Retrospective%Empirical analysis
摘 要：
The loosening of a series of domestic and international policies before May 2023 means that the global situation of the COVID-19 has changed from emergency to normalization.However,research on the abnormal changes in macro data of China's agricultural product import and export trade during the entire epidemic period is extremely scarce.This article uses macro data of China's agricultural product import and export trade from the first three years of the epidemic and the entire three years of the epidemic,namely from2017 to 2022,for statistical analysis.By combining literature review,quantitative data analysis,comparative research,and other methods,it sorts out,and summarizes the changes in China's agricultural product import and export situation compared to the pre epidemic situation during the epidemic period,thoroughly analyzes the characteristics of China's agricultural product import and export trade before and throughout the epidemic.Research has found that the total import and export trade of agricultural products in China has been continuously increasing throughout the entire epidemic period;due to trade restrictions on agricultural products from multiple countries around the world,rising domestic agricultural production price indices,and the impact of the China US trade agreement,China's agricultural import and export trade deficit has further expanded.The volume and price fluctuations in the import and export trade of major agricultural products such as grains,cotton,and sugar are significant.Overall,the basic structure of China's agricultural product import and export trade has not changed under the epidemic.The COVID-19 epidemic has not changed China's natural endowment of agricultural resources,nor has it changed China's agricultural structure,trade environment and government agricultural policies.During the entire epidemic period,the overall structure of China's agricultural product import and export trade did not change,but the agricultural product trade indicators showed significant suddenness in early 2020,with significant phased impacts on agricultural product trade and significant structural impacts on a few agricultural product trade.This article suggests that China should vigorously ensure the bottom line of food security,enhance its bargaining power in the international agricultural trade market under the risk of the epidemic,and continue to leverage China's comparative advantage in agricultural trade.
