Position: Home > Articles > Feasibility Analysis on Avoiding Price Risk of Conifer Import by Utilizing CEM Random Length Lumber Futures——Empirical analysis based on monthly statistics
Issues of Forestry Economics
2014,34
(2)
129-132+153
利用CEM木材期货规避针叶材进口价格风险的可行性分析——基于月度统计数据的实证分析
作 者：
战立强
单 位：
东北林业大学经济管理学院
关键词：
木材期货;针叶材;SPF锯材;木材价格
摘 要：
CEM木材期货以产自北美的SPF锯材为合同标的物。过去一直认为CEM木材期货价格对中国的木材价格不产生影响,但是协整分析表明,滞后3个月的CEM木材期货价格与2012年5月以来的针叶原木进口价格之间存在长期均衡关系,说明CEM木材期货价格是针叶原木进口价格的格兰杰原因。考虑到进口针叶原木价格与中国木材市场价格综合指数高度相关,木材进口企业利用CEM木材期货规避针叶材进口中的价格风险是可行的。
译 名：
Feasibility Analysis on Avoiding Price Risk of Conifer Import by Utilizing CEM Random Length Lumber Futures——Empirical analysis based on monthly statistics
作 者：
ZHAN Li-qiang;Institute of Economic and Management,Northeast Forestry University;
关键词：
lumber future;;conifer;;SPF sawn wood;;wood price
摘 要：
CEM random length lumber futures take SPF lumber produced in North-America as traded commodity. People have always believe that CEM random length lumber future prices have no impact to Chinese wood prices,but the cointegration analysis indicate that there is long term balanced relationship between 3 months delayed CEM random length lumber future price and conifer log import price after May 2012,so CEM random length lumber future price is the Granger reason of conifer log import price. Due to imported conifer log price is highly correlated with TPI,it is feasible to avoid price risk of conifer importing by utilizing CEM random length lumber futures.
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