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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 武威市雷暴气候特征及预报方法研究 安徽农业科学 2010,38 (36) 20956-20959+20984
Position: Home > Articles > Climate Characteristic of Thunderstorm and Forecast Method Study in Wuwei City Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences 2010,38 (36) 20956-20959+20984

武威市雷暴气候特征及预报方法研究

作  者：
杨晓玲;余龙;杨金虎;丁文魁;郭丽梅
单  位：
中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所;甘肃省武威市乌鞘岭气象站;甘肃省定西市气象局;甘肃省武威市气象局
关键词：
雷暴;气候特征;ECMWF;数值预报
摘  要：
利用武威市1961～2008年5个气象站雷暴实况资料,采用统计学方法,分析了该市雷暴天气时空分布、日变化和持续性等气候特征。结果表明,雷暴具有明显的地域特征,雷暴日数山区多于川区,南部多于北部;年代、年雷暴日数总体呈减少趋势,雷暴主要发生在5～9月,12:00～23:00是雷暴发生的集中时段,雷暴的持续时间一般为10～40 min。运用2003～2007年4～10月逐日20:00 ECMWF数值预报格点场资料,采用Press准则进行因子初选,逐步回归进行因子精选,使用最优子集回归建立雷暴预报方程,采用CSC双评分准则确定了各县区西北气流型、西南气流型、不规则型雷暴的全局最优显著性方程,预报方程通过了α=0.01信度检验。预报方程均达到了较高的概括率和拟合率,为雷暴业务预报提供了客观有效的指导产品。
译  名：
Climate Characteristic of Thunderstorm and Forecast Method Study in Wuwei City
作  者：
YANG Xiao-ling et al(Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology China Meteorological Administration、Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster in Gansu Province、Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction CMA,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020)
关键词：
Thunderstorm;Climate characteristic;ECMWF;Numerical forecast
摘  要：
Using thunderstorm data of five meteorological stations in Wuwei city from 1961 to 2008,climate characteristic,such as space and time distribution and diurnal variation and endurance of thunderstorm are analyzed with statistical method.The results show that thunderstorm has obvious spatial characteristics;there are more thunderstorm days in mountainous area than that in Sichuan area,and more in south than that in north.Thunderstorm days of age and year overall assumes reducing.Thunderstorm occurs from May to September.Centralized time of thunderstorm occurrence is form 12:00 to 23:00 in a day.Thunderstorm's duration is from 10 minutes to 40 minutes generally.Selecting ECMWF data of April to October from 2003 to 2007,factors are initially elected with Press criterion and then with stepwise regression forecast method;thunderstorm forecast equations are built with optimal subset regression.The overall situation and the optimum equations of thunderstorm weather on northwest flow,southwest flow and anomalous flow are determined with the CSC double grading criterion for every county or district,forecast equations adopt letter examination of α=0.01.The forecast equations achieves completely quite high summary rate and fitting rate.Objective and effective instruction product is provided for thunderstorm's service forecast.

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