Position: Home > Articles > Validity Test of Technical Analysis Methods on Mutton Price Short-term Prediction—A Case Study of the Mutton Price in Xinjiang
Agricultural Outlook
2019,15
(10)
19-26
技术分析法对羊肉价格短期预测的有效性检验——以新疆羊肉价格为例
作 者：
鲁云峰;李捷
单 位：
新疆畜牧科学院畜牧业经济与信息研究所
关键词：
技术分析法;短期预测;羊肉价格;有效性检验
摘 要：
价格预测分析方法多样。为确定技术分析法对羊肉价格短期预测的有效性,以2008—2018年新疆羊肉市场价格为例,采用技术分析法中比较常用的蜡烛线分析法和移动平均线分析法,对蜡烛线分析法进行数量化改造,通过短期预测结果和实际价格走势对比进行有效性检验。结果显示,技术分析法对羊肉价格短期预测具有较强的有效性,蜡烛线和移动平均线分析方法的不同形态具有不同的信号出现频率和准确性。因此,进行羊肉价格预测时要注意社会心理等对价格的影响,对不同分析方法在羊肉价格短期预测中的应用进行检验、应用和优化。
译 名：
Validity Test of Technical Analysis Methods on Mutton Price Short-term Prediction—A Case Study of the Mutton Price in Xinjiang
作 者：
Lu Yunfeng;Li Jie;Animal Husbandry Economics and Information Research Institute,Xinjiang Academy of Animal Sciences;
关键词：
technical analysis;;short-term prediction;;mutton price;;validity test
摘 要：
There are many methods to do price prediction. In order to determine whether the technical analysis methods on short-term prediction for mutton price are effective or not, taking the mutton price in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2018 as an example, this paper adopted the candle line and moving average line which were used in the technical analysis method, quantified the candle line analysis method, carried on the validity test by comparing the forecasted short-term price and the actual price. The results showed that technical analysis method was effective for the short-term mutton price prediction. Also, there were different signal frequency and accuracy for different forms of candle wire and moving average line analysis method.Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the influence of social psychology on the price in the short-term prediction, to strengthen the inspection, application and optimization of different analytical methods in the short-term prediction of mutton price.
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技术分析法对羊肉价格短期预测的有效性检验 [[—]][[—]]以新疆羊肉价格为例 [鲁云峰, 李捷] 农业展望 2019 (10) 19-26
