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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 气候变化对灰飞虱分布的影响及风险分析 河南农业科学 2016,45 (6) 82-88
Position: Home > Articles > Effects of Climate Change on Distribution of Laodelphax striatellus and Risk Analysis Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences 2016,45 (6) 82-88

气候变化对灰飞虱分布的影响及风险分析

作  者：
王茹琳;王闫利;姜淦;沈沾红;林姗
单  位：
四川省农村经济综合信息中心
关键词：
灰飞虱;分布;气候变化;风险分析;Max Ent;预测
摘  要：
利用最大熵生态位模型Max Ent和Arc GIS软件分析并预测灰飞虱在我国的风险区变化,揭示气候变化对该虫害带来的影响。结果表明,在当前气候条件下,灰飞虱在我国的极高风险区为上海、江苏、天津、山东大部、安徽东部、四川东部等地,高风险区为湖北、湖南、江西、浙江、广西、贵州、重庆和河南等地。2020时段(2011—2020年),在温室气体A1b(能源需求平衡)排放情景下,灰飞虱在我国的极高风险区总面积略有增加,高风险区面积显著减少;A2a(能源需求较高)排放情景下高风险区面积显著减少,主要分布在长江流域以南地区。2050时段(2041—2050年),A1b、A2a、B2a(能源需求较低)3种排放情景下,灰飞虱在我国的极高风险区面积均有所增加,但增幅均不明显;而高风险区面积均有所减少。因此,气候变化对灰飞虱在我国的分布有较大影响。
译  名：
Effects of Climate Change on Distribution of Laodelphax striatellus and Risk Analysis
作  者：
WANG Rulin;WANG Yanli;JIANG Gan;SHEN Zhanhong;LIN Shan;Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Centre;Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin;
关键词：
Laodelphax striatellus;;distribution;;climate change;;risk analysis;;Max Ent;;prediction
摘  要：
The potential distribution of Laodelphax striatellus in China was predicted by using Max Ent model and Arc GIS software,to reveal the effect of climate change on the insect. The results showed that,under current climatic conditions,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Tianjin,most of Shandong,east of Anhui,and east of Sichuan were the extremely high risk areas for Laodelphax striatellus in China,and the high risk areas were Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,Zhejiang,Guangxi,Guizhou,Chongqing and Henan. In 2011—2020,with greenhouse gases under the A1 b emission scenario,the extremely high risk area of Laodelphax striatellus would increase a little,while the high risk area would decrease significantly. Under A2 a emission scenario,the high risk area would also tend to decrease significantly and was mainly distributed in south of the Yangtze River Basin. In 2041—2050,the extremely high risk area would tend to expand but not significantly under A1 b,A2a and B2 a emission scenarios,while the high risk area would tend to decrease. Thus,climate change has a great impact on distribution of Laodelphax striatellus in China.

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