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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 气候变化对疏勒河流域径流量影响研究 安徽农业科学 2009,37 (35) 309-312+322
Position: Home > Articles > Study on the Impacts of Climate Changes on the Runoff in Shule River Basin Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences 2009,37 (35) 309-312+322

气候变化对疏勒河流域径流量影响研究

作  者：
郭小芹;李岩瑛;曹玲
单  位：
中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所;甘肃省武威市气象局
关键词：
疏勒河流域;气候变化;Mann-Kendall非参数检验;预测模型
摘  要：
以疏勒河流域3个水文站1973～2008年径流量资料和出山口托勒站同期的气象资料为基础数据,从Mann-Kendall非参数检验出发,研究了温度、降水以及径流量的变化趋势和变化周期。研究表明,疏勒河流域出山口温度持续显著上升,降水波动性变化,主干河流径流量明显减少,但近10年气候由暖干向暖湿转型,径流量有显著增加的趋势。径流量与气候变化关系密切,尤其与降水显著相关,二者均存在4～6年的周期振荡。最后利用最优子集回归方法建立了水量平衡方程,以对来年径流量作出客观准确的预测,为水资源开发利用提供科学依据。
译  名：
Study on the Impacts of Climate Changes on the Runoff in Shule River Basin
作  者：
GUO Xiao-qin et al (Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster in Gansu Province,Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA,Lanzhou,Gansu 730020)
关键词：
Shule River Basin;Climate change;Mann-Kendall nonparametric test;Prediction models
摘  要：
Using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test method,the change trend and periods of temperature,rainfall and runoff were studied on the basis of the runoff data provided by three hydrological stations from 1973 to 2008 and the meteorological data at Tole Weather Station in the same period.The results showed that the temperature at mountain pass of Shule River Basin increased significantly,precipitation showed fluctuating changes and the runoff of mainstream rivers showed a significant decrease trend.In recent ten years,climatic transition changed from warm-dry type into warm-wet type and the runoff had significant increase trend.Runoff and climate were closely related.There was a significant correlation between runoff and precipitation,with a periodic variation of 4-6 years.Finally the runoff prediction model was established by the optimal subset regression method to predict the runoff in next year accurately,which could provided scientific basis for the development and utilization of water resources.

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