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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于Mann-Kendall分析的昆明降雨与气温变化趋势研究 安徽农业科学 2011,39 (25) 15755-15757
Position: Home > Articles > Study on Change Trend of Precipitation and Temperature in Kunming City Based on Mann-kendall Analysis Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences 2011,39 (25) 15755-15757

基于Mann-Kendall分析的昆明降雨与气温变化趋势研究

作  者：
张燕明;文俊;王新华;刘彤
单  位：
云南农业大学水利水电与建筑学院
关键词：
降雨量;平均气温;Mann-Kendall方法;趋势检验
摘  要：
根据昆明市1980~2005年的逐月气象资料,应用线性倾向估计法、距平值法分析了降雨量和气温的年内年际变化特征,并采用Mann-kendall方法对降雨量和气温变化趋势进行了检验分析。结果表明,1980~2005年昆明市降雨量呈上升趋势,但上升趋势不明显;平均气温呈明显的上升趋势;降雨量和平均气温年内变化呈两头小中间大的分布,季节分布明显。Mann-Kendall趋势检验表明,昆明市不同季节降雨量变化与年变化趋势不完全一致,春季、冬季和全年明显上升,秋季明显下降;不同季节平均气温变化与年变化趋势完全一致,均为明显上升趋势。
译  名：
Study on Change Trend of Precipitation and Temperature in Kunming City Based on Mann-kendall Analysis
作  者：
ZHANG Yan-ming et al(Faculty of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming,Yunnan 650000)
关键词：
Precipitation;Average temperature;Mann-Kendall technique;Trend test
摘  要：
Based on the monthly meteorological data collected from Kunming weather stations during 1980-2005,the change characters of annual and inter-annual precipitation and temperature were analyzed by linearity trend estimation and annual temperature anomaly.Moreover,Mann-Kendall technique was applied to detect the change trend of precipitation and temperature.The results demonstrated that the precipitation showed an increasing trend,but the trend was not obvious and the mean temperature showed a clear upward trend.The inter-annual precipitation and mean temperature showed the distribution of middle part and small at two ends,and the seasonal distribution was obvious.The results of Mann-Kendall trend test showed that the change trend of precipitation of different season was not in accordance with the trend of the whole year.And there was an obvious increase in spring,winter and the whole year had obvious decrease in fall.the change trend of mean temperature of different season was in accordance with the whole year,all these periods had an increasing trend.

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