Position: Home > Articles > Jingzhou Blizzard Analysis and Short-term Prediction Based on PP Method
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
2016
(11)
2792-2795+2804
基于PP法的荆州市暴雪分析与短期预报
作 者：
张伦瑾;李忠贤;付小平;赵卓勋
单 位：
湖北省荆州市气象局;南京信息工程大学
关键词：
暴雪分析;预报模型;PP法;短期预报
摘 要：
利用荆州市6个国家地面观测站的降水、天气现象、雪深和气温等常规资料,统计1981~2010年冬季暴雪个例,结果表明,近30年全市共发生暴雪46站次,其时空分布不均,1月发生最多,约占全部暴雪站次的61%;东南部地区发生几率明显高于西北部地区,且2000年以后西北部地区没有出现暴雪。经过普查历史天气图,认为暴雪天气发生与500 h Pa西风带低槽、地面中等偏强冷空气、700 h Pa强劲的西南暖湿气流、700 h Pa与850 h Pa之间的逆温层以及温度的垂直分布有关。预报采取PP法的技术思路,即在建立天气图预报模型和指标的基础上,选取数值预报对应的参数制作暴雪短期预报,实践证明应用效果较好。
译 名：
Jingzhou Blizzard Analysis and Short-term Prediction Based on PP Method
作 者：
ZHANG Lun-jin;LI Zhong-xian;FU Xiao-ping;ZHAO Zhuo-xun;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Jingzhou Meteorological Bureau;
关键词：
snowstorm analysis;;prediction model;;PP method;;short term prediction
摘 要：
This paper based on the precipitation, weather phenomena, snow depth and air temperature of 6 national level ground stations in Jingzhou, and the situation of snow storm in the winter of 1981 to 2010. Statistics showed that nearly 30 years the city a total of 46 times snowstorm, uneven distribution in time and space. In January the most, accounts for about61% of all snowstorm times; Southeastern occurrence probability was significantly higher than that in the northwest and there was no snowstorm in the northwest areas after 2000. After a survey of the historical weather map, it was considered that the snowstorm occurring was connected with 500 h Pa westerly belt between the low trough, ground in medium partial strong cold air, summer strong southwest warm wet air current,700 h Pa and 850 h Pa temperature inversion layer and temperature vertical distribution. On the basis of establishing the model and index of the weather forecast model, the forecast method of PP was used, and the corresponding parameters could be selected to produce the short-term forecast.
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