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Modeling forest fires in Mazandaran Province, Iran

作者：

Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi;Fatemeh Gorgani;Maryam Omidi Najafabad

单位：

Faculty Member of Department of Agricultural Sciences, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Ira;Department of Basic Sciences, Payame Noor University Centre, Tehran, Iran;Faculty Member of Department of Mathematical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

关键词：

Forest fire;Spatio-temporal shot-noise Cox processes;Spatial point process;TEMPORAL PATTERNS;WILDFIRES;DYNAMICS;BEHAVIOR;TIME;GI

摘要：

We used a spatio-temporal shot-noise Cox process to study the distribution of forest fires reported between 2006 and 2010 in the Mazandaran Province's forests. The fitted model shows that daily temperature, altitude, and slope-exposure impacted fire occurrence. Forest fire occurred in the region had an aggregated behavior, which increased in radius below 1-km away from fired areas; a periodic pattern of fire occurrence in the region was verified. The risk of forest fire is significantly higher for areas with southern exposure and slope between 30A degrees and 50A degrees, northern exposure and slope between 0A degrees and 50A degrees, and eastern exposure and slope between 0A degrees and 30A degrees. The risk of fire was also significantly higher at altitudes between 1350 and 3000 m asl. Human causes were the main ignition source for forest fires in the region. The fire occurrence rate stayed above average during the drought period from September 2008 to September 2009. Our findings could lead to the development of fire-response and fire-suppression strategies appropriate to specific regions.

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Modeling forest fires in Mazandaran Province, Iran

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