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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于环流因子的辽宁省水稻适宜移栽期预报模型研究 大麦与谷类科学 2018 (2) 11-15
Position: Home > Articles > A Study on the Prediction Model of Suitable Transplanting Date of Rice in Liaoning Province Based on Circulation Indices Barley and Cereal Sciences 2018 (2) 11-15

基于环流因子的辽宁省水稻适宜移栽期预报模型研究

作  者：
王婷;王鹏;李雨鸿;周斌;李琳琳;胡春丽;刘东明
单  位：
辽宁省气象服务中心;辽宁省气象科学研究所
关键词：
水稻;适宜移栽期;环流因子;预报模型
摘  要：
利用辽宁有记录以来的农业气象资料,分析发现辽宁省水稻适宜移栽期与播种到移栽期≥10℃有效积温之间存在极显著的正相关关系,再根据有效积温和环流因子之间的相关关系,筛选出高相关、通过0.05的显著性检验的环流因子,建立起水稻适宜移栽期的长期预报模型。该模型通过历史拟合和预报检验,预报模型准确率基本在95%以上,预报结果对农业生产具有重要的实用价值。
译  名：
A Study on the Prediction Model of Suitable Transplanting Date of Rice in Liaoning Province Based on Circulation Indices
作  者：
WANG Ting;WANG Peng;LI Yu-hong;ZHOU Bin;LI Lin-lin;HU Chun-li;LIU Dong-ming;Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Science;Liaoning Meteorological Service Centre;
关键词：
Rice;;Suitable transplanting date;;Circulation indices;;Prediction model
摘  要：
By using the statistical method to analyze the documented agro-meteorological data in Liaoning Province, a very significant positive correlation was found between the suitable transplanting date of rice and the effective accumulated temperature larger than 10 degree Celsius during the period between rice seeding and transplanting. According to the correlation between effective accumulated temperature and circulation indices, highly correlated circulation indices were identified by the significance test with the confidence level of 0.05. Moreover, the long-term prediction model of the suitable transplanting date of rice was established on the basis of the highly correlated circulation indices. By comparing the suitable transplanting dates of rice forecasted by the model with those historically recorded, the model was shown to have very high forecasting precision(> 95%). Hence, the established prediction model has important practical value for agricultural production.

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