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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 依据分位数回归建立的长白落叶松潜在最大冠幅预测模型 东北林业大学学报 2019 (8) 41-46
Position: Home > Articles > Potential Maximum Crown Width Prediction Model of Larix olgensis by Quantile Regression Journal of Northeast Forestry University 2019 (8) 41-46

依据分位数回归建立的长白落叶松潜在最大冠幅预测模型

作  者：
田德超;李凤日;董利虎
单  位：
东北林业大学
关键词：
长白落叶松;优势木;潜在最大冠幅;分位数回归;混合效应模型
摘  要：
依据吉林省松江河林业局,黑龙江省孟家岗林场、东京城林业局和林口林业的长白落叶松人工林178块固定样地数据,从中选出1 166株优势木数据,采用不同的分位点构建不同线性分位数回归模型,初步选取能够模拟潜在最大冠幅的最适分位点,结合人为选择的数据点和抽样的方法来最终确定最适分位点。在最适分位点模型基础上,采用线性分位数混合效应模型最终确定潜在最大冠幅模型。结果表明:通过对不同分位点0.90、0.95和0.99在随机抽取样本大小为1 000,循环分析1 000次得到参数估计值的平均值、标准偏差和变异系数的比较,以及利用决定系数、预测平均误差、预测平均绝对误差和预测的均方误差指标对按径阶选取45株优势木数据做线性回归与用全部数据做不同分位点的分位数回归进行比较,发现分位点为0.99为最适分位点。在最适分位点模型基础上,考虑样地之间的差异,构建了线性分位数混合效应模型。线性分位数混合效应模型较好的描述了长白落叶松潜在最大冠幅随胸径变化的趋势,为准确模拟林分竞争和预测林分生长动态提供有效的依据。
译  名：
Potential Maximum Crown Width Prediction Model of Larix olgensis by Quantile Regression
作  者：
Tian Dechao;Li Fengri;Dong Lihu;Northeast Forestry University;
关键词：
Larix olgensis plantation;;Dominant trees;;Potential maximum crown;;Quantile regression;;Mixed-effect model
摘  要：
With fixed plot data of 178 pieces of Larix olgensis plantation in Songjianghe Forestry Bureau of Jilin Province, Mengjiagang Forest Farm of Heilongjiang Province, Dongjingcheng Forestry Bureau, and Linkou Forestry, a total of 1 166 dominant trees were selected from the plots to construct a linear quantile regression model with different quantiles. The optimal quintiles that can simulate the potential maximum crown were initially selected, and the artificially selected data points and sampling methods were combined to determine the optimal quintile. Based on the optimal quantile model, the linear maximum quantized model was used to determine the potential maximum crown model. The average value, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of the parameter estimates were obtained by randomly selecting the sample size of 1 000, and the cycle analysis was 1 000 times for different quantile points of 0.90, 0.95 and 0.99, and using R~2, MEP, MAEP and MSEP index the linear regression of 45 dominant tree datawas compared by scale and the quantile regression of all the data with different quantiles. The quantile is 0.99 is the optimal quintile.With the optimal quantile model, considering the difference between plots, a linear quantile mixed effect model was constructed. The linear quantile mixed effect model better describes the trend of the potential maximum crown diameter of the Larix olgensis with the diameter of the breast, and provides an effective basis for accurately simulating the stand competition and predicting the growth dynamics of the stand.

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