关键词：
CVM;森林景区;游憩价值;零支付样本;抗议支付;Mlogit模型
摘 要：
基于抗议支付视角,以福州国家森林公园为例,通过建立Mlogit模型检验CVM评价森林景区游憩价值的内容效度,并利用Logit模型对抗议支付的影响因素进行识别。结果表明:游客的"零支付"类型能有效地被关键变量识别出来,说明游客能够较好地理解问卷内容,从某种角度上可以认为CVM在评估森林景区的游憩价值中具有较好的内容效度。游客个人收入、距离、性别以及年龄均对"抗议支付"产生了不同的影响。Logit模型预测"抗议支付"的正确概率仅为69.4%,影响"抗议支付"的重要因素还有待进一步识别和验证。
译 名：
Research on Content Validity in Recreation Value of Forest Scenic Spots Using Contingent Value Method:A Case Study of National Forest Park in Fuzhou
作 者：
DING Zhenmin;HUANG Xiujuan;ZHU Jiajia;School of Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University;
关键词：
contingent value method;;forest scenic spot;;recreational value;;sample of non-payment;;protest payment;;Multinomial logistic model
摘 要：
⑴Background——Contingent value method(CVM)is an evaluation method based on virtual market for the value of public goods,but researchers lacked trust to the validity of CVM,so the accuracy of its assessment results is the focus of widespread controversy.Content validity,as an important aspect of CVM validity,aims to examine whether the question in the questionnaire can represent the content or subject remaining to be measured.Protest payment,which use for measuring interviewees'understanding degree of questionnaire content,has gradually became one aspect of the research on the content validity of CVM.To some extent,protest payment can judge the content validity of CVM,when the authentic protest payment could be identified through effective methods and the probability of inconsistency of response to related question in the questionnaire could be determined.⑵Methods——This paper designs 3 non-protest payments of discrimination conditions.If each of the discrimination conditions can identify different type of"zero payment"and not be affected by other key variables,the type of"protest payment"can be identified well to some extent,and we can judge the content validity of CVM on assessment of forest recreation value.The Multinomial logistic model was applied for identification and inspection of protest payment,and then it was the logistic model that was made use of reasonable forecast about it based on the sample with only"zero payment"collected just at evaluation recreation value of scenic forest using CVM.⑶Results——The results showed that the types of"zero payment"can be effectively identified by the key variables and not be affected by other key variables.So we can infer that the content of the questionnaire can be well understood by the tourists and there is no indication that the visitors response questionnaire inconsistently for the majority.CVM has good content validity in the evaluation of the recreation value of Forest Scenic spot from a certain perspective.Individual characteristics of tourists have different effects on the payment of protest such as income,distance,sex and age.In the Logit model,the level of income has a significant positive impact on the level of"protest payments"at 10%significance level,because the high income earners bear more tax compared with others,and take it for granted that the government should pay for the improvement of the environment in forest park.Distance plays a negative impact on"protest payments"at 5%significance level,namely the closer to the forest park,the easier to choose to"protest payment"for tourists.But the correct probability of prediction of is 69.4%using logistic model which point out that the important factors that influence the protest payment remain to be further identified and verified.In terms of content validity,CVM can be introduced into the evaluation of recreational value of forest scenic spots,but other validity of CVM should also be considered.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——Although we never deny that CVM has good content validity in the evaluation of the recreation value of Forest Scenic spot from a certain perspective,there are some improvements in the design of the questionnaire though our research.Therefor we can make the following improvements to the questionnaire according to the results of the study.In the course of the design of the questionnaire,we can design the"tax rate"or"tax amount"option,which is used to judge whether the deep reason of the protest payment for high income earners due to their sensibility to personal income tax.
