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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS预测大薸在云南的潜在适生区 云南农业大学学报(自然科学) 2018 (1) 7-16
Position: Home > Articles > MaxEnt Modeling and ArcGIS for Predicting the Potential Distribution of Pistia stratiotes L. in Yunnan Province Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Natural Science) 2018 (1) 7-16

基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS预测大薸在云南的潜在适生区

作  者：
喜超;木霖;李胜;岳英;和淑琪;桂富荣;刘梦然
单  位：
云南农业大学植物保护学院云南省生物资源保护与利用国家重点实验室;云南省农业环境保护监测站;云南省高原特色农业产业研究院
关键词：
大薸;潜在适生区;MaxEnt;ArcGIS
摘  要：
【目的】明确外来入侵植物大薸在云南的潜在适生区,为大薸的防控提供理论依据。【方法】采用最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt)与地理信息系统(ArcGIS),结合大薸的地理分布数据、7个环境因子及4个地形因子,对其在云南的潜在分布和适生区等级进行预测。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线方法进行验证,运用刀切法分析影响大薸分布的环境变量。【结果】大薸在云南省的适生区面积约13.56万km~2,其中以滇中及滇南地区为主;生境主要为营养富集的水域、沼泽、沟渠和水田等。ROC曲线法得到AUC值为0.907,表明预测结果可靠。刀切法分析显示:影响大薸分布的主要环境因子为最冷季度平均温度、海拔和土地利用类型。【结论】大薸在云南的潜在适生区面积较大,占云南国土面积的30%以上。
译  名：
MaxEnt Modeling and ArcGIS for Predicting the Potential Distribution of Pistia stratiotes L. in Yunnan Province
作  者：
XI Chao;MU Lin;LI Sheng;YUE Ying;HE Shuqi;GUI Furong;LIU Mengran;State Key Laboratory of Conservation and Utilization of Biological Resources of Yunnan,College of Plant Protection, Yunnan Agricultural University;Yunnan Plateau Characteristic Agriculture Industry Research Institute;Yunnan Agricultural Environmental Protection and Monitoring Center;
关键词：
Pistia stratiotes L.;;potential suitable area;;MaxEnt;;ArcGIS
摘  要：
[Purpose] In order to provide the theoretical evidence for supervising and controlling the alien invasive aquatic plant Pistia stratiotes L., the potential suitable area of P. stratiotes of Yunnan in China was predicted. [Method] The MaxEnt modeling and ArcGIS was used for the predicting, based on the presence occurrence data of the species and the environmental data, such as 7 climatic factors and 4 topographic factors. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was used for verifying the modeling and the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of P. stratiotes was analyzed with Jackknife test. [ Result] The suitable area of P. stratiotes in Yunnan Province is about 13.56×104 km~2, and mainly concentrated in central and southern Yunnan, especially in the habitat such as nutrient enriched waters, marshes, ditches and paddy field area and so on. The AUC of ROC curve is 0.907. And the main environmental factors that determine the potential distribution are mean temperature of coldest quarter, altitude and land use type. [Conclusion] The potential suitable area of P. stratiotes in Yunnan is large, accounting for more than 30% of the land area of Yunnan.

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