摘 要：
针对林浆纸供应链的风险问题,建立基于林业企业节点风险、制浆造纸企业节点风险和林浆纸供应链资源流风险的风险评估体系,并运用层次分析法和熵权法计算出各风险指标的权重。计算结果表明,林业企业节点风险中市场风险和政策性风险最大,制浆造纸企业节点风险中原材料供应不足风险和市场风险最大,林浆纸供应链资源流风险中资金流风险和信息流风险最大,可以为管理者制定风险防范措施提供依据,重点监控影响较大的风险因素,从而实现供应链安全稳定运作。
译 名：
Risk Evaluation of the Forest-pulp-paper Supply Chain based on AHP and EVM
作 者：
PENG Hong-jun;WANG Miao-miao;College of economics and management, Nanjing Forestry University;
关键词：
forest-pulp-paper supply chain;;risk evaluation;;AHP;;VM
摘 要：
For the forest-pulp-paper supply chain risk issues, the paper established the risk assessment system based on forestry enterprise node risk, pulp and paper enterprises node risk and resource flow risk of the forest-pulp-paper supply chain, using the AHP and EVM to calculate the weight of each risk indicators.The results show that the weight of market risk and policy risk are the largest in the forestry enterprise node risk, insufficient supply of raw materials and market risk are at greatest risk in the pulp and paper enterprises, cash flow risk and information flow risk are at greatest risk in the resource flow risk of the forest-pulp-paper supply chain, which can be managed who provide the basis for the development of risk prevention measures, focusing on monitoring risk factors that have a great influence on supply chain, in order to achieve security and stability operations.
