关键词：
气候变化;农业;北方农牧交错带;界线变迁;人类活动;定量分析
摘 要：
在气候变化与人类活动的影响下,北方农牧交错带界线不断变迁。定量辨识气候变化和人类活动对北方农牧交错带界线变迁的贡献程度,是当今气候变化领域的热点问题。该文基于国内外相关研究,概括了不同视角下北方农牧交错带的定义方法,分析了气候变化与人类活动对北方农牧交错带界线变迁的驱动作用,总结了定量分析驱动力贡献程度的方法及主要结果。同时指出目前研究还存在定义、数据、方法和解释方面的问题。针对以上问题,提出了多要素综合定义、驱动力定量分析、高时空分辨率数据的收集以及深层次因果关系的解释等解决方法。该文可为敏感区域土地利用的合理规划和气候变化的减缓与适应措施的制定提供科学依据。
译 名：
Review on boundary shift of farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China and its driving forces
作 者：
Shi Xiaoli;Shi Wenjiao;College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hebei Normal University;Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolvement and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation of CAS, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;
关键词：
climate change;;agriculture;;farming-pastoral ecotone;;boundary shift;;human activities;;quantitative analysis
摘 要：
The boundary of agriculture-animal husbandry ecotone in northern China has changed frequently by climate change and human activities. Quantitatively detecting the contributions of climate change and human activities to the boundary changes of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China has been a hot topic in the field of climate change. In recent years, an increasing number of studies have documented the boundary changes in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China. However, for a long time, there was not a unified definition of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China. Based on the related literatures, we systematically reviewed the definitions of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China from five respects. 1) The definition based on the substitute evidences, according to the information indicated in the historical literatures, archaeological events, pollen records, ice cores and tree-rings, the historical boundary of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China can be delineated. 2) The definition based on the field investigations, is according to the scholars' field surveys of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China. 3) The definition based on the climatic factors, according to the range of the precipitation(such as the 400 mm isohyet), moisture, temperature and wind, the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China can be draw accurately. 4) The definition based on the land use factors, according to the proportions of the grassland and cropland, the scope conforming to the farming-pastoral ecotone was selected. 5)The definition based on the comprehensive indicators, this method often combines the land use factors and climatic factors to define the scope of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China, besides this, the vegetation, the economic level and livelihood were also used to draw the outline of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China. Then we analyzed the contributions of the climate change and human activities to the boundary changes of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China. For the climate change, the boundary of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China changed northward during the warmer-wetter period and changed southward during the colder-drier period. For the human activities, the policies, increased population, developed economic levels, religion and diet structure were all the main driving forces of the boundary changes of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China. After that, we introduced the quantitative progresses of the previous researches on evaluation of the contributions of the climate change and human activities. However, there were four defects in assessing the contributions of climate change and human activities to boundary changes of the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China, such as the lack of the comprehensive definition, the quantitative method, the systematical data and the reasonable explanation. Meanwhile, we obtained the solutions to the existing problems. For example, composited definition based on multi-factors, quantitative identification of driving forces at multi-scales, collection of high resolutions data and the detailed explanations of the mechanism of boundary change. Understanding the contributions of climate change and human activities to the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China is essential for making comprehensive decisions concerning human adaptability to climate change in different regions; the study will be helpful to the management of reasonable land use and the mitigation and adaptation to climate change for the sensitive regions.
