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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于DNDC模型的崇明岛农田土壤有机碳变化模拟和预测 上海农业学报 2017 (5) 52-57
Position: Home > Articles > DNDC model-based simulation and forecast of organic carbon variation in farmland soils of Chongming Island Acta Agriculturae Shanghai 2017 (5) 52-57

基于DNDC模型的崇明岛农田土壤有机碳变化模拟和预测

作  者：
张翰林;吕卫光;施俭;李双喜;张娟琴;黄仁影;左狄;郑宪清
单  位：
上海市农业科学院生态环境保护研究所
关键词：
农田;土壤有机碳;DNDC模型;崇明岛
摘  要：
采用上海市崇明岛14个乡镇、3种农田类型(粮田、菜田和果园)监测点的2003年、2009年和2013年的土壤有机碳实测数据,对DNDC模型进行本地化模拟与验证,并以2003年数据为背景值,对未来20年崇明不同种植类型农田在秸秆还田和有机肥施用条件下土壤有机碳含量变化进行了模拟和预测。实测结果显示,从2003年到2013年14个乡镇土壤有机碳含量均有一定程度提升,增长幅度范围在7.20%-120.39%;DNDC模拟数据的均方根误差均小于10%,能够较好的模拟崇明岛农田土壤有机碳动态变化;模拟结果显示崇明农田碳储量依然有很大的提高潜力,崇明岛现行的秸秆还田与施用有机肥技术均可显著提升土壤有机碳含量,应继续保持并扩大推广面积。
译  名：
DNDC model-based simulation and forecast of organic carbon variation in farmland soils of Chongming Island
作  者：
ZHANG Han-lin;LYU Wei-guang;SHI Jian;LI Shuang-xi;ZHANG Juan-qin;HUANG Ren-ying;ZUO Di;ZHENG Xian-qing;Eco-Environmental Protection Institute,Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences;Agro-Technology Extension Center of Chongming District;School of Agriculture,Anshun Collge;
单  位：
Eco-Environmental Protection Institute,Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences%Agro-Technology Extension Center of Chongming District%School of Agriculture,Anshun Collge
关键词：
Farmland;;Soil organic carbon;;DNDC model;;Chongming Island
摘  要：
According to the measured data of soil organic carbon of grain and vegetable fields and orchards in monitoring points of Chongming Island's 14 townships in 2003,2009 and 2013,the simulation and verification were made by the DNDC model, and on the basis of values measured in 2003 the soil organic carbon variations of the grain and vegetable fields and orchards in coming 20 years were forecasted under various straw manuring quantities and organic fertilizer rates. The results showed that between 2003-2013 the soil organic carbon contents in all the monitoring points had some increase,and their growth rates were 7. 20%—120. 39%; The root mean square errors of data simulated by the DNDC model were all less than 10%,so the DNDC model could well simulate the variation of soil organic carbon in Chongming Island; The simulated results indicated that the soil carbon reserves of Chongming Island's farmlands still had a great increasing potential,and the current straw manuring and organic fertilizer applying techniques could significantly improve the soil organic carbon content and thus should be popularized.

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