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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 农村人口老龄化对我国粮食产量变化的影响——基于粮食主产区面板数据的实证分析 农业技术经济 2018 (12) 41-52
Position: Home > Articles > The Impact of Rural Population Aging on the Change of Grain Yield in China——Empirical Analysis based on Panel Data of the Main Grain-producing Areas Journal of Agrotechnical Economics 2018 (12) 41-52

农村人口老龄化对我国粮食产量变化的影响——基于粮食主产区面板数据的实证分析

作  者：
魏君英;夏旺
单  位：
长江大学湖北农村发展研究中心
关键词：
农村人口老龄化;粮食产量变化;粮食产量可持续增长
摘  要：
文章基于2001—2015年间我国粮食主产区相关数据,实证分析了农村人口老龄化与粮食产量变化以及投入要素边际效应的关系。结果表明:农村人口老龄化对粮食产量变化产生了显著负向的影响,农村人口老龄化下粮食产量得以保持增长的原因主要是粮食播种面积和化肥使用量的增加;农村老龄劳动与化肥以及机械等要素之间存在替代关系,与正常劳动、粮食播种面积、农药、农用薄膜等要素之间存在互补关系,农村老龄劳动比重的增加减弱了化肥以及机械对粮食产量变化的边际作用,但强化了正常劳动、粮食播种面积、农药、农用薄膜的边际作用。在农村人口老龄化和农业供给侧结构性改革双重背景下,既要保持粮食产量持续增长又要实现绿色粮食生产,需要在保护地力,提升耕地质量,加快培育新型职业农民、加快农业机械化的普及以及培育新型农业服务主体等方面采取合理的政策。
译  名：
The Impact of Rural Population Aging on the Change of Grain Yield in China——Empirical Analysis based on Panel Data of the Main Grain-producing Areas
作  者：
WEI Junying;XIA Wang;
单  位：
WEI Junying%XIA Wang
关键词：
Aging of The Rural Population;;Gain Yield Change;;Sustainable Growth in Grain Yield
摘  要：
Based on the data of the main grain producing areas from 2001 to 2015 in China,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between the aging of rural population aging and the change of grain output and the marginal effects of input factors. The results show that the population aging in rural China has a significant and negative impact on grain production. The reason why the increase of grain production is mainly because the increase of grain sown area and fertilizer input. There is an alternative relationship between the elderly labor and chemical fertilizer and machinery,and a complementary relationship between the elderly labor and normal labor,grain sown area,pesticide,and agricultural film. The increase of the proportion of the elderly labor has weakened the marginal effect of fertilizer and machinery on grain production change,but has strengthened the marginal effect of normal labor,grain sown area,pesticide,and agricultural film. Under the dual background of the rural population aging and structural reforms on the supply side of agriculture,to maintain sustainable growth in grain production while achieve green grain production,it is necessary to adopt reasonable policies to protect the land productivity,improve the quality of cultivated land,accelerate the cultivation of new types of professional farmer,agricultural mechanization and new types of agricultural service providers.

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