当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 普达措国家公园旅游生命周期评判 西南林业大学学报(自然科学) 2017 (3) 178-182
Position: Home > Articles > Evaluation on Life Cycle in Potatso National Park Journal of Southwest Forestry University(Natural Sciences) 2017 (3) 178-182

普达措国家公园旅游生命周期评判

作  者:
刘传;董静;邱守明
单  位:
西南林业大学生态旅游学院
关键词:
普达措国家公园;旅游;生命周期;模型;预测
摘  要:
根据2007—2015年普达措国家公园游客数量的统计数据,基于旅游地生命周期理论,对普达措国家公园构建直线、指数、戈珀兹、Logistic回归、GM(1,1)、ARIMA(1,1,1)6个预测模型。结果表明:GM(1,1)模型的预测效果最好,总体效果为GM(1,1)>Logistic回归>直线趋势>指数趋势>ARIMA(1,1,1)>戈珀兹模型;基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的模拟方程为:x(t+1)=49.157 119e~(0.159 615t)±27.302 081,对普达措国家公园未来10年的游客量进行预测,到2025年普达措国家公园的游客量可能会突破500万人。
译  名:
Evaluation on Life Cycle in Potatso National Park
作  者:
Liu Chuan;Dong Jing;Qiu Shouming;College of Ecotourism,Southwest Forestry University;
关键词:
Potatso National Park;;tourist;;life cycle;;model;;prediction
摘  要:
Based on the resort life cycle theories,6 prediction models of linear,exponential,GEPTTs,logistic regression,GM(1,1) and ARIMA(1,1,1) was constructed with the statistics of tourists in Potatso National Park from 2007 to 2015. The results indicated that GM(1,1) model has the best prediction effect,the overall effect were as the follows: GM(1,1) > logistic regression > linear > exponential > ARIMA(1,1,1) > GEPTTs. The simulation equation based on GM(1,1) grey forecasting model was x(t + 1) = 49. 157 119e~(0. 159 615t) ± 27. 302 081. Visitors in Pudacuo National Park may exceed 5 million people in 2025 based on the prediction of tourist number in the next 10 years.

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