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Position: Home > Articles > Application of Improving Grey-forecasting Model in Irrigation Water Consumption Modeling Water Saving Irrigation 2008 (12) 49-50+56

改进灰色预测模型在灌溉用水量建模中的应用

作  者：
张宝泉;俞宏;杨国军
单  位：
甘肃省酒泉市肃州区水务局;甘肃省水利水电勘测设计研究院;甘肃省水利厅讨赖河流域水利管理局
关键词：
灰色预测模型;系数;预测精度;灌溉用水量
摘  要：
灌溉用水量系统受诸多不确定性因素的影响,采用灰色预测方法对甘肃省灌溉用水量进行建模分析。通过对灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度的分析表明,GM(1,1)预测公式系数的选取存在缺陷。因此基于残差和为零准则,就预测公式系数C的选取问题提出新的计算方法,并对系数修正前后的模型分别建模。结果表明:改进灰色模型预测灌溉用水量与实际用水量更接近、精度更高。
译  名：
Application of Improving Grey-forecasting Model in Irrigation Water Consumption Modeling
作  者：
ZHANG Bao-quan1,YU Hong2,YANG Guo-jun3(1.Water Resources Administration Bureau of Taolaihe River Basin of Gansu Province,Jiuquan 735000,Gansu Province,China;2.Gansu Provincial Survey & Design Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Lanzhou 730000,China;3.Suzhou District Water Conservancy Bureau of Jiuquan City,Jiuquan 735000,Gansu Province,China)
关键词：
grey model;coefficient;prediction precision;irrigation water consumption
摘  要：
The irrigation water consumption is affected by a lot of uncertain factors.In this paper,grey-forecasting model is adopted to predicate the irrigation water consumption of Gansu province.The results of analysis of the precision and adaptability of the grey GM(1,1) model indicate that there is bug in the choice of coefficient of prediction formula.Based on the principle that the total of errors equals to zero,a new calculation method is proposed for this problem.Then the new method is further extended according to the criteria of absolute errors under ideal situation.At last,the irrigation water consumption model of Gansu province is built by applying this method.The results show that the irrigation water consumption value predicted by improving grey-forecasting model is more close to the actual water quantities and has higher accuracy.

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