中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会
Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS China Association of Agricultural Science Societies
En
Ch
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 主办

AI检索

订阅

返回顶部
当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 上海春季蟠桃温室内气温变化特征及低温预报 中国农学通报 2019 (35) 118-123
Position: Home > Articles > 上海春季蟠桃温室内气温变化特征及低温预报 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2019 (35) 118-123

上海春季蟠桃温室内气温变化特征及低温预报

作  者：
陈琛;丁昇;曹丹萍;周伟;高超;王蕾迪
单  位：
上海市金山区气象局
关键词：
温室;气温特征;多元回归分析;逐步回归分析;日低温预报
摘  要：
为提高上海市金山区设施农业气象服务水平,减轻春季低温冻害对温室内'玉露'蟠桃授粉的影响,利用2015-2017年春季蟠桃温室内外气象观测资料对春季棚内气温影响特征进行分析研究,采用多元线性回归和逐步回归分析方法建立3种典型天气类型下蟠桃温室内日最低气温预报模型.结果表明,晴天和多云天气下温室内气温有明显日变化特征,阴雨天温室内的平均气温偏低、湿度偏大,严重影响蟠桃的春季授粉率.蟠桃温室内的最低气温与温室内前一天的小气候因子有较好的相关性,提取前一天温室内最低、最高气温和棚外最低气温3个主要气象因子,尝试采用2015-2016年气象数据建立春季温室内不同天气状况下的日最低气温预报模型,并利用2017年的春季气象资料对三种天气下预报模型进行验证,整个春季蟠桃温室内日最低气温预报平均绝对误差在1.56℃,平均相对误差18%,均方根误差4.97℃,其中对阴雨天的日最低气温预报效果最好.该研究结果可为设施农业环境调控及小气候预报提供支持.
作  者：
Chen Chen;Ding Sheng;Cao Danping;Zhou Wei;Gao Chao;Wang Leidi;Shanghai Jinshan Metrological Bureau;Shanghai Peach Institute;South China Agricultural University;
关键词：
greenhouse;;air temperature variation;;multivariate regression analysis;;step regression analysis;;daily minimum temperature forecast
摘  要：
To improve facility agro-meteorological services in Jinshan Shanghai and mitigate the impact of meteorological disasters on greenhouse'Yulu'peach production, based on the meteorological observation data inside and outside the solar greenhouse in spring during 2015-2017, the temperature characteristics and the minimum temperature forecast model inside the greenhouse in spring was studied by using correlation and stepwise regression analysis method. The results showed that the temperature inside the peach greenhouse had an obvious diurnal variation in sunny and cloudy days, and the range of temperature change was greater in sunny days than in cloudy days. The continuous overcast days had higher inside humidity and low average temperature, which seriously affected the normal growth and pollination of flat peach. The minimum temperature inside the solar greenhouse was preferably related to the highest and lowest temperature inside or outside the solar greenhouse. The daily minimum temperature forecast model inside the solar greenhouse in winter was set up by using 2015-2016 spring data. The forecast model was verified by the spring data in 2017.The absolute error(AE) of the forecast daily minimum temperature inside the peach greenhouse in the whole spring was about 1.56℃, the average relative errors was about 18%, and the average absolute errors(RMSE)was about 4.97℃. The model result in overcast days was the best. The results of model fitting and forecast test show that the forecast model has high accuracy and good practicability.

相似文章

导出引用
计量
文章访问数: 11
HTML全文浏览量: 0
PDF下载量: 0

所属期刊

推荐期刊

友情链接Friendly link
农业信息研究所Agricultural information institute 农业智能知识服务平台Agricultural intelligent knowledge service platform 农业学术服务平台Agricultural Knowledge Service System 中国知网CNKI 维普网VIP 万方WANFANG DATA
联系我们Contact us

电话Tell：010-82109652-808

邮箱E-mail：agrijournal@caas.cn

服务Service
关于我们About us 意见建议Opinions and suggest
版权说明Copyright
单位：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 © 2017中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 ICP备案号：京ICP备09089781号-46