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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于灰色系统的太平洋褶柔鱼冬春生群资源丰度变化研究 海洋渔业 2018 (6) 641-648
Position: Home > Articles > On changes of abundance index of winter-spring cohort of Todarodes pacificus in the Northwest Pacific based on grey system theory Marine Fisheries 2018 (6) 641-648

基于灰色系统的太平洋褶柔鱼冬春生群资源丰度变化研究

作  者：
解明阳;陈新军;汪金涛
单  位：
上海海洋大学海洋科学学院
关键词：
太平洋褶柔鱼;资源丰度;灰色关联;GM(1,N)模型
摘  要：
太平洋褶柔鱼(Todarodes pacificus)为温带大洋性头足类,其资源量呈逐年上升趋势,已经成为潜在的重要经济种类之一。科学预测太平洋褶柔鱼资源丰度对其开发利用及保护有重要作用。利用2003-2015年太平洋褶柔鱼生产统计数据和其产卵场的环境、气候因子,包括太平洋年代际震荡指数PDO(Pacific decadal oscillatio index)、厄尔尼诺指数Nino3. 4距平、黑潮强弱指数KCA(Kuroshio current average)、平均海表面温度SST(average sea surface temperture)、平均叶绿素浓度Chl a(average Chlorophyll aconcentration),使用灰色关联分析和灰色预测建立GM(1,N)模型的方法分析产卵期内(1-3月)太平洋褶柔鱼冬春生群体资源丰度(CPUE)的产卵场环境指标和气候指标,并建立太平洋褶柔鱼冬春生群资源丰度预报模型。结果表明,包含所有因子的模型A-1拟合的资源丰度与实际资源丰度的平均相对误差为15. 61%,精度最高的模型为不含KCA和SST的模型C-8,相对误差为15. 07%,可预测太平洋褶柔鱼冬春生群资源丰度变化趋势。
译  名：
On changes of abundance index of winter-spring cohort of Todarodes pacificus in the Northwest Pacific based on grey system theory
作  者：
XIE Ming-yang;CHEN Xin-jun;WANG Jin-tao;College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration,Ministry of Agriculture;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries,Shanghai Ocean University;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai Ocean University;Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources,Ministry of Agriculture;
单  位：
XIE Ming-yang%CHEN Xin-jun%WANG Jin-tao%College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University%Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration,Ministry of Agriculture%National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries,Shanghai Ocean University%Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai Ocean University%Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources,Ministry of Agriculture
关键词：
Todarodes pacificus;;resource abundance;;grey correlation;;GM(1,N) model
摘  要：
Todarodes pacificus is a temperate oceanic cephalopod,and its resources are increasing year by year. It has become a potentially important economic type. It is scientifically predicted that the abundance of Todarodes pacificus resources will play an important role in its development,utilization and protection. This study used the statistical data of the production of Pacific squid from 2003 to 2015 in combination with the environmental and climatic factors of its spawning grounds,including the Pacific decadal oscillation index( PDO),the Nino 3. 4 anomalies,and the El Nino index. The Kuroshio current average( KCA),the average sea surface temperature( SST),and the average Chlorophyll concentration( Chl a) were used to establish the GM( 1,N) model using the grey relational analysis and grey prediction. The environmental index and climatic index of spawning sites of winter migrating population resource abundance( CPUE) during the spawning period( from January to March) were analyzed.. The results showed that the average relative error between the abundance of the model A-1 fitted with all the factors and the actual resource abundance was15. 61%,and the model with the highest precision was the model C-8 without KCA and SST,and the relative error was 15. 07%,and it can predict the change trend of the resource abundance of the winter migrating fishes of the Pacific squid.

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