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Position: Home > Articles > A Nonlinear Phenological Model for Predicting the Growth Durations in Rice Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis 1992 (3) 224-229

水稻生育期预测的非线性发育模型(英文)

作  者:
殷新佑
单  位:
江西农业大学农学系
关键词:
非线性模型;发育;昼温与夜温;移栽效应;水稻(Oryza Sativa L.)
摘  要:
在水稻模拟研究中发育期预测是基础环节。因为它为模拟作物生产力提供时间上的框架。目前对水稻发育过程尚未完全研究清楚,难以用解释性模型来描述。生产上普遍使用的积温法有一定问题,因为它隐含着发育速度与温度呈线性关系。本研究发现:对于调节IR8(籼稻)和藤坂5号(粳稻)播种到开花期间的发育速度,夜温比昼温有更大的效应。这一现象假设是由于发育速度与温度呈非线性关系引起的,因为夜温通常比昼温低。基于这一假设,本研究提出一个解释性能较好的非线性模型来量化水稻发育对温度的反应,并用相乘法则来综合温度和光周期的效应。该模型比线性加性模型和CERES-Rice中的发育模型有更好的预测性能,尽管由于数据观察值本身的异质性,模拟值与观察值还有一定差异。这种异质性来源之一是移栽效应,它在基因型(品种)间的差异似乎较小。为改善模型的预测性能,移栽效应可以作为一个乘子引入模型中以修饰光温效应。
译  名:
A Nonlinear Phenological Model for Predicting the Growth Durations in Rice
作  者:
Yin Xinyou (Dept. of Agronomy, Jiangxi Agricultural University)
关键词:
Nonlinear model;;Phenology;;Day and night temperatures;;Transplanting shock;;Rice (Oryza sativa L.).
摘  要:
Prediction of rice phenology is essential in crop simulation since it provides the temporal framework for predicting crop productivity. Phenological development of rice is still not understood well to provide an explanatory model of this process. The thermal time approach is problematic since it implicates a linear relation between temperature and development rate and ignores the difference of day and night temperature in modulation of the phenologieal events. Night temperature was found here to be more important than day temperature in controlling the rate of development to flowering in two rice varieties IR8 and Fujisaka 5. On the basis of assumption that the importance of night temperature over day temperature attributed to the nonlinearity in the relation between the development rate and temperature, this paper presents a nonlinear model to quantify the thermal response and to integrate effects of tcmperature and photoperiod in a multiplicative formulation. The model was shown to have better predictability than a linear additive model and the phenological module in CERES-Rice, in spite of the great discrepancy between simulation and observation due to the huge heterogeneity of data per se, one of its sources is transplanting shock, which seems to have low geno-variability and can be interpreted as a multiplicative modifier to the model to improve its performance in prediction. This research presses us to study rice phenology in depth.

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