关键词：
崩岗侵蚀;风险评估;发生风险;危害风险;Logistic模型;江西省
摘 要：
崩岗侵蚀是我国南方水土流失的一种特殊类型,关于崩岗的风险评估方面的研究较少。选择江西省作为研究区域,通过相关因子分析,筛选风险评估指标,利用Logistic模型计算崩岗发生风险,在此基础上采用专家打分法,计算崩岗危害风险,将崩岗发生风险与崩岗危害风险叠加,即可得到崩岗侵蚀风险,以此探讨区域尺度崩岗侵蚀风险评估的可行性。结果显示,江西省南部和西部崩岗发生风险较高,东部、北部和中部相对较低。全省崩岗危害风险总体较轻微,相对较高的危害风险呈零星分布。综合发生风险和危害风险后,江西省崩岗侵蚀以低中风险为主,占全省总面积的95%;其中,较低及以下风险占全省总面积的68%。较低及以下风险主要分布鄱阳湖周边区域,风险防控措施应以预防保护为主。中风险及以上风险主要分布在江西省南部和西部,宜采取预防保护与综合治理并重的风险防控措施。研究表明,Logistic模型对崩岗侵蚀发生风险评估是可行的。
译 名：
On the risk assessment of collapse gully erosion in Jiangxi Province based on Logistic model
作 者：
CHENG Dongbing;ZHAO Yuanling;ZHANG Pingcang;ZHAO Jian;Soil and Water Conservation Department,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute;
关键词：
collapse gully erosion;;risk assessment;;occurrence risk;;hazardous risk;;Logistic model;;Jiangxi Province
摘 要：
[Background] Collapse gully erosion is a special type of soil erosion in southern China,but risk assessment research on collapse gully erosion is few. Risk assessment provides new ideas and methods for the study of collapse gully erosion and soil erosion. [Methods]This article selected Jiangxi Province as the study area. The index of the risk assessment was selected by the correlation factor analysis,and the Logistic model was used to calculate the occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion. On this basis,the hazardous risk of collapsing was estimated by the expert scoring method. In the end,the risk of collapse gully erosion can be obtained by superposing the occurrence risk and hazardous risk,so as to discuss the feasibility of risk assessment of collapse gully erosion at the regional scale. [Results]Collapse gully erosion in Jiangxi Province are mainly distributed in such as precipitation from 1 500 mm to1 700 mm,granite red soil land,sloping from 10 degrees to 30 degrees,below 300 m altitude,vegetation coverage less than 0. 2 or from 0. 6 to 0. 8,in forest or grassland area. By using the function of geographic analysis in ARCGIS,after overlay factors and the distribution of collapse gully erosion,4 000 grid cells are sampled randomly and respectively in study area with collapse gully erosion or not,andlogistic regression model is constructed with date of collapse gully erosion distribution and 6 screened factors such as hypsography,relief,vegetation cover,soil type,land use,and rock type. For accuracy tests amount to 70. 9%,then the occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion in Jiangxi Province can be calculated by this logistic regression model. The occurrence risk of collapse gully erosion in the south and the west of Jiangxi Province is relatively higher,and those in the eastern,northern and central are relatively lower. The hazardous risk of collapse gully erosion is generally minor in the whole province,and the hazardous areas with relatively high risk showing a sporadic distribution trend. After comprehensive analysis of the occurrence risk and the hazardous risk,the collapse gully erosion presents medium and low risk in Jiangxi Province,which possesses more than 95 percent of the province's total area. Among them,the light risks accounts for 68% of the total area of the province and is mainly distributed in the surrounding areas of Poyang Lake. The measures of risk prevention and control should be mainly focused on prevention and protection in these areas. The medium-and upper-class risks is mainly distributed in the southern and western parts of Jiangxi Province,and in these parts,risk prevention and control measures should be taken equal attention to prevention, protection and comprehensive management. [Conclusions] Finally,the study proves that Logistic model is feasible for estimating the risk of collapse gully erosion.
