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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 长江三角洲极端降水趋势及未来情景预估 南京林业大学学报(自然科学版) 2008,32 (3) 9-12
Position: Home > Articles > Changes of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River delta and its pre-evaluation for future Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Sciences Edition) 2008,32 (3) 9-12

长江三角洲极端降水趋势及未来情景预估

作  者：
张增信;栾以玲;姜彤;张强;曾燕
单  位：
中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室;中国气象局气候研究开放实验室;南京林业大学江苏省林业生态工程重点实验室;中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室江苏
关键词：
长江三角洲;极端降水;气候模型
摘  要：
观测资料显示,1951—2000年长江三角洲年降水和极端降水年际差异较大,但没有呈现显著线性变化趋势。利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式与实测降水数据比较发现,该模型能较好的模拟年降水和极端降水变化。2001—2050年,IPCC 3种不同CO2排放情景下,年降水与极端降水变化并不一致,年降水都出现明显的下降趋势,但极端降水却增加显著,尤其中等排放情景下,2020s年代年降水量锐减,但极端降水迅速增加,说明未来长江三角洲洪涝和干旱发生的几率更高,极端气候造成的危害将更严重。
译  名：
Changes of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River delta and its pre-evaluation for future
作  者：
ZHANG Zeng-xin1,2,3,4,LUAN Yi-ling1,JIANG Tong2,ZHANG Qiang2,4,ZENG Yan4,5(1.Nanjing Forestry University,Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Forestry Ecological Engineering,Nanjing 210037,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;3.Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039,China;4.Laboratory for Climate Studies,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;5.Development and Application of Meteorological Science and Technology Center,Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau,Nanjing 210008,China)
关键词：
Yangtze River delta;Extreme precipitation;Climate model
摘  要：
The total amount of highest in precipitations amount in 1 day and 3 days in the Yangtze River delta were analyzed.The research results indicated that there were not significant trend change during 1951—2000.There was a good relationship between ECHAM5/MPI-OM model and observed data about total precipitation and extreme precipitation.Under three different greenhouse gases emission scenarios,total precipitation and extreme precipitation were compared.It was seen that their varieties were very greatly.Total precipitation was dominated by decreasing trend in 2020s,but extreme precipitation was dominated by significant increasing trend in the 2020s,especially under the A1B scenarios.So the future of Yangtze River delta might be more floods and droughts,and the damage caused by extreme precipitation might be more serious.

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