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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于DPSIR-灰色关联分析法的合肥市生态可持续发展研究及动态预测 安徽农业科学 2019,47 (18) 65-69
Position: Home > Articles > Research on Ecological Sustainable Development and Dynamic Prediction of Hefei City Based on DPSIR-Gray Correlation Analysis Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences 2019,47 (18) 65-69

基于DPSIR-灰色关联分析法的合肥市生态可持续发展研究及动态预测

作  者：
熊鸿斌;熊倩
单  位：
合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院
关键词：
DPSIR;灰色关联法;生态可持续发展;动态预测;合肥市
摘  要：
[目的]基于DPSIR和灰色关联法,探究生态可持续发展变化并提出一种动态预测模型。[方法]结合案例城市合肥市,采用DPSIR模型构建评价指标体系,利用灰色关联法计算生态可持续发展;此外,考虑到新旧历史数据对预测结果影响程度不同,引入时间权重,构建动态预测模型。[结果]2008—2016年合肥市生态可持续发展能力分别为0.625、0.647、0.659、0.672、0.718、0.740、0.777、0.809、0.897,呈上升的趋势;经济发展水平与产业结构、自然资源与生态环境、污染控制与科技创新为重要影响因子;动态预测模型平均相对误差为0.009 1,最大误差不超过2.4%,满足预测精度要求;利用动态预测模型与传统曲线模拟预测合肥市2017年生态可持续发展能力的结果分别为0.973和1.050。[结论]该研究建立的动态预测模型具有更强的可行性与可操作性。
译  名：
Research on Ecological Sustainable Development and Dynamic Prediction of Hefei City Based on DPSIR-Gray Correlation Analysis
作  者：
XIONG Hong-bin;XIONG Qian;School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Hefei University of Technology;
关键词：
DPSIR;;Grey relational analysis;;Ecological sustainable development;;Dynamic prediction;;Hefei City
摘  要：
[Objective]Based on DPSIR and grey correlation method,this paper explores the changes of ecological sustainable development and proposes a dynamic prediction model.[Method]Combined with the case city of Hefei,the DPSIR model was used to construct the evaluation index system,and the grey-relational analysis was used to calculate the level of ecological sustainable development; in addition,taking into account the impact of the old and new historical data on the prediction results,this paper introduced the time weights and built a dynamic forecasting model for the ecological sustainable development.[Result]The level of ecological sustainable development in Hefei from 2008 to 2016 was 0.625,0.647,0.659,0.672,0.718,0.740,0.777,0.809 and 0.897 respectively,which showed an upward trend;economic development level and industrial structure,natural resources and ecological environment,pollution control and technological innovation were important influence factors; the average relative error was 0.009 1,and the maximum error did not exceed 2.4%,which met the forecasting accuracy requirements; dynamic forecasting model and traditional curve simulation were used to predict the ecological sustainable development of Hefei in 2017,and results were 0.973 and 1.050 respectively.[Conclusion] The dynamic forecasting model established in this paper has stronger feasibility and operability.

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