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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 气候变化对新疆区域水资源的影响评估 现代农业科技 2014 (8) 219-222
Position: Home > Articles > Assessment About the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource in Xinjiang Modern Agricultural Science and Technology 2014 (8) 219-222

气候变化对新疆区域水资源的影响评估

作  者：
樊静;毛炜峄
单  位：
新疆气候中心
关键词：
气候变化;洪水灾害;冰川;径流;新疆
摘  要：
水是影响人类生存的首要问题,也是制约和影响新疆经济社会发展与生态环境保护的关键因素。20世纪50年代以来,新疆洪水发生频次增高、灾害损失增加;极端洪水呈区域性加重趋势,以南疆区域最为显著;伴随着冰川退缩加剧,融水量增大,冰雪洪水、雪崩、风吹雪、冰崩灾害随着气候变化引起的冬季积雪增加和气温升高,其灾频次增加,强度增强。随着新疆气候向暖湿转变,全疆大多数河流径流量均有不同程度的增加;空间分布上,天山山区增加尤其明显,其他地区有不同程度的增加,昆仑山北坡略微有减少。水汽净收入量和水汽转化率均无显著变化趋势。气候变暧导致径流的年内分配更加不均匀,春旱夏洪的危害更加凸显,水资源的供需矛盾和洪水威胁加重。因此,在全球气候变化不断加速的趋势下,需加强气候变化对新疆区域水资源的影响评估和适应性管理对策研究,使科学技术在减灾方面发挥主导作用。
译  名：
Assessment About the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource in Xinjiang
作  者：
FAN Jing;MAO Wei-yi;Xinjiang Climate Center;
关键词：
climate change;;flood disaster;;glacier;;runoff;;Xinjiang
摘  要：
Water is not only the primary factor which influences the human survival,but also the key factor which restricts and affects economic and social development and ecological environment protection in Xinjiang. Since 1950s,flood frequency and disaster loss increased in Xinjiang.Extreme floods showed a trend of regional aggravated,the southern region of Xinjiang was the most significant. With the aggravation of glacier retreat and meltwater increasing,blizzard disaster such as glacier flood,debris,snow avalanches and snow drift avalanche increased frequency and intensity.With the snow cover increasing in winter and the air temperature rising,the disaster strength was enhancement. As the climate warming and humid in Xinjiang,most of riverrunoff increased in different degree. From spatial distribution,Tianshan Mountainous increased obviously,other regions rised in different degrees except the north Slope of Kunlun Mountainous which reduced slightly.Net amount of water vapor and water vapor conversion rate was no significant trend. Climate warming caused the annual runoff distribution more uneven,spring and summer flood damage were more prominent,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and flood threat aggravating.Therefore,it should be keeped an eye on the water resource and disasters with the global climate change accelerating consistently,and to strengthen the study of impact assessment and adaptation strategies of water resources,and to make the science and technology play a leading role in disaster reduction.

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