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Position: Home > Articles > Evaluation of Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Jiangsu Province Based on Water Footprint Theory Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation 2017 (6) 313-320

基于水足迹理论的江苏省水资源可持续利用评价

作  者：
刘楚烨;赵言文;马群宇;卞雪;贲春月
单  位：
南京农业大学资源与环境科学学院
关键词：
水足迹;水资源;GM(1,1);可持续利用;江苏省
摘  要：
[目的]通过核算考虑灰水的江苏省水足迹,评价江苏省水资源可持续利用现状和发展趋势,为制定合理的水资源管理政策提供科学依据,并对水资源管理提出创新对策。[方法]采用水足迹理论核算分析江苏省2005—2015年水足迹及其变化特征,选取水资源与经济、社会、环境协调发展水平4个子系统共14个指标对这11a间江苏省水资源可持续利用情况进行分析,并引入GM(1,1)灰色模型预测了未来5a(2016—2020年)水足迹的发展趋势。[结果](1)江苏省水足迹在11a间总体呈倒U趋势,峰值在2011年,达1.22×1010 m3,随后急剧减少;(2)江苏省年均水足迹自给率为88.1%,经济社会协调水平较高且呈现可持续发展的趋势,但依然处于严重水资源短缺状态;(3)在"惯性发展"的情境下,到2020年江苏省水足迹较2015年减少2.04×109 m3,年均降幅为0.92%。[结论]随着最严格水资源管理制度的落实,各行业用水效率不断提高,江苏省水资源利用呈现出可持续发展的态势。
译  名：
Evaluation of Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Jiangsu Province Based on Water Footprint Theory
作  者：
LIU Chuye;ZHAO Yanwen;MA Qunyu;BIAN Xue;BEN Chunyue;College of Resources and Environmental Science,Nanjing Agricultural University;
关键词：
water footprint;;water resources;;GM(1,1)model;;sustainable utilization;;Jiangsu province
摘  要：
[Objective]The gray water footprint was considered to evaluate the situation and trend of sustainable utilization of water resources in Jiangsu Province,and to provide scientific basis and policy support to some extent for the determination of reasonable water sustainable utilization strategies,and to give some innovative advices for water resources management.[Methods]The study calculated water footprint and its characteristics in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2015 by applying the water footprint theory,and analyzed the situation of sustainable utilization of water resource in terms of water footprint structure,social benefit,economic benefit and ecological security.In addition,GM(1,1)was used to predict the development trend in the next five years.[Results](1) The water footprint of Jiangsu Province showed an inverted U-shaped curve in the study period,got the highest(1.22×1010 m3)in 2011,and showed a fast declining trend.(2) Jiangsu Province can self-supply(average water self-supplication is 88.1%)in supply water resources.It is in a high level of economic and social benefit,but still be in a state of serious water shortage.(3) According to the"Inertia development"situation,the water footprint in 2020 will have a 0.92% decline as compared with that in2015.[Conclusion]As the strictest water resources control system was applied,water use efficiency has been improved,and the water resources utilization of Jiangsu Province presents a trend of sustainable development.

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