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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 环境变化对湘江湘潭站径流的影响研究 水土保持研究 2016,23 (6) 145-149
Position: Home > Articles > Impact of Environmental Change on the Runoff of Xiangtan Hydrological Station in Xiangjiang Basin Research of Soil and Water Conservation 2016,23 (6) 145-149

环境变化对湘江湘潭站径流的影响研究

作  者：
任政;盛东;张丽
单  位：
湖南省水利水电科学研究所水资源管理研究中心;河北工程大学水电学院
关键词：
环境变化;突变点;新安江模型;径流
摘  要：
环境变化引起河川径流的显著变化,为水文水资源管理带来新的挑战,如何区分气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响是水文科学研究的热点和难点。基于STARS和Pettitt方法,综合检验径流时间序列的突变点,构建天然期径流过程模拟的水文模型,将人类活动期的径流过程还原到天然状态,并从不同年代和不同水平年的角度探讨环境变化对人类活动期的径流影响。结果表明:1992年为湘潭站1957—2014年径流时间序列的突变点,新安江模型对湘潭站天然期径流过程具有较好的模拟效果,人类活动和气候变化引起人类活动期径流增加的贡献率分别为68.24%和31.76%,气候变化影响最大的时间为2011—2014年,人类活动影响最大的时间为2001—2010年,尤以丰水年影响最大。
译  名：
Impact of Environmental Change on the Runoff of Xiangtan Hydrological Station in Xiangjiang Basin
作  者：
REN Zheng;SHENG Dong;ZHANG Li;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Hebei University of Engineering;Water Resources Management Research Center,Hunan Water Resources and Hydropower Research Institute;
关键词：
environmental change;;abrupt point;;Xinanjiang model;;runoff
摘  要：
The significant runoff changes forced by environment changes have brought new challenges for hydrology and water resources management.How to identify impacts of climate change and human activities to runoff change is a hot and difficult topic in hydrological science research.Firstly,the abrupt point of annual runoff time series is identified by comprehensive analysis based on STARS and Pettitt method and divided into natural and human activity period.Secondly,the hydrological model is built to simulate runoff process of natural period.Thirdly,the runoff processes of human activity period are simulated by the hydrological model.Lastly,the impact of environmental change on runoff change during human activity period is discussed under every decade and different year of precipitation frequency.The results show that the abrupt point from 1957 to 2014is in 1992 for annual runoff time series of Xiangtan station in Xiangjiang Basin,there is very good agreement between measurements and calculations for natural runoff process based on Xinanjiang hydrological model,and the contribution rates of human activities and climate change to runoff change during human activity period are 68.24% and 31.76%,respectively,when the biggest times of climate change impact are in 2011—2014but of human activity is in 2001—2010especially at high precipitation year.

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