关键词：
农牧资源;线性加权法;绩效评价;塔里木河流域
摘 要：
【目的】构建塔里木河流域农牧资源利用评价指标体系,通过对指标数据的量化评估,得到塔里木河流域农牧资源利用现状利用效益指数,并提出符合当地农牧资源可持续发展的对策建议。【方法】根据2005~2012年《新疆统计年鉴》数据,利用SPSS软件,选取相关指标,以种植业系统、畜牧业系统和生态系统三个子系统为二级指标架构,对塔里木河流域农牧资源利用进行绩效评价。【结果】塔里木河流域种植业效益稳中有升,增长趋势平缓;畜牧业效益先抑后扬,增长势头强劲,但存在较大的不可持续性风险;生态效益起伏较大,有持续下行风险;综合效益受生态效益影响较大,提高缓慢,说明过度依赖资源的发展模式不可长久维系。【结论】提高可利用资源的利用效率,消除或减轻生态、气候等自然因素所带来的不利影响,是塔河流域弥补自身短板,实现当地农业跨越式、可持续发展的前提。
译 名：
Performance Evaluation of Utilization of Agro-Pastoral Resources in Tarim River Basin
作 者：
TIAN Tong;LIU Xin-ping;ZHAO Jun;School of Economics and Business,Xingjiang Agricultural University;
关键词：
agro-pastoral resource;;linear weighted method;;performance evaluation;;Tarim river basin
摘 要：
【Objective】The evaluation index system for utilization of agro- pastoral resources in Tarim River will be constructed in this paper. On the basis of evaluation results of the efficiency index,the status quo of the utilization and the use efficiency index of agro- pastoral resources in Tarim River will be known and some countermeasures and suggestions in accordance with local sustainable development of agriculture and animal husbandry resources will be put forward. 【Method】Based on the data the Xinjiang statisticd yearbook( 2005- 2012),the relevant indicators will be selected by utilizing SPSS software,the performance evaluation on utilization of agro- pastoral resources in Tarim River will be made under the model of having the three subsystems in planting,animal husbandry and ecological systems as secondary indictors.【Result】Planting benefit in Tarim River Basin will be going up steadily and the growth trend will be smooth. Animal husbandry benefit first decreased and then increased with strong force. There is a big risk of unsustainability during the process.Ecological benefit is volatile and there is still a risk of continued downside tendency; Ecological benefit also had great influence on the increasing comprehensive benefits,leading to slow improvement,which proved that excessive dependence on resources cannot be sustainable.【Conclusion】Improving the efficiency of the use of limited resources,eliminating or reducing the adverse effect brought by the natural factors such as ecologicalclimate was the premise for Tarim basin to make up for their short board and realize the regional agriculture sustainable development by leaps and bounds.
