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基于改进马尔柯夫链的区域干旱预测

作  者:
王志成
单  位:
新疆塔里木河流域管理局
关键词:
马尔柯夫链;SPI指数;干旱;预测
摘  要:
本文依据阿克苏河支流协和拉水文站1961—2007年降水量资料,采用SPI指数进行干旱分级,在此基础上,建立了适用于研究区的加权马尔科夫链预测模型,并对模型进行改进预测。结果表明:该模型可提高中度以上干旱等级预测精度,为流域干旱预警及抗旱减灾提供了较好的参考价值。
译  名:
Regional drought prediction based on improved Markov chain
作  者:
WANG Zhicheng;Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Authority;
关键词:
Markov chain;;SPI index;;drought;;prediction
摘  要:
In the paper,SPI index is adopted for drought classification according to the precipitation data from 1961 to2007 at Aksu River Tributary Xiehela Hydrologic Station. On the basis,a weighted Markov chain forecast model applicable to research area is established. The model is improved and predicted. The result shows that the model can improve the prediction precision of drought level above moderate degree,thereby providing better reference value for river basin early warning and drought resistance disaster reduction.

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