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Position: Home > Articles > Stock assessment and risk analysis of management strategies for Scomber japonicus in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea using a Bayesian approach Journal of Fisheries of China 2010,34 (5) 95-105

基于贝叶斯方法的东、黄海鲐资源评估及管理策略风险分析

作  者：
李纲;陈新军;官文江
单  位：
上海海洋大学大洋生物资源开发和利用上海市高校重点实验室;上海海洋大学海洋学院;上海海洋大学大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室
关键词：
鲐;资源评估;决策与风险分析;贝叶斯方法;剩余产量模型;东、黄海
摘  要：
运用基于贝叶斯的剩余产量模型,对东、黄海鲐资源进行评估,确定了当前鲐资源开发利用状态,估算了在不同收获率水平下未来5年鲐资源量和年总可捕捞量,分析了管理策略实施后鲐资源崩溃的风险。结果表明,2006年东、黄海鲐正遭受过度捕捞,但其资源量并未处于过度捕捞状态。决策分析表明,收获率为0.3是最适预防性的管理策略,在该策略下,鲐平均资源量将从2006年的451千吨将增加到2011年的871千吨,2011年资源量恢复到BMSY的概率为0.48,而过度捕捞的概率为0。
译  名：
Stock assessment and risk analysis of management strategies for Scomber japonicus in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea using a Bayesian approach
作  者：
LI Gang1,2,3, CHEN Xin-jun1,2,3* , GUAN Wen-jiang1,2,3 (1. College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China; 2. The Key Laboratory of Shanghai Education Commission for Oceanic Fisheries Resources Exploitation, Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China; 3. The Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)
关键词：
Scomber japonicus; stock assessment; decision and risk analysis; Bayesian approach; surplus production model; East China Sea and Yellow Sea
摘  要：
Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) is an important commercial fish species in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea. Since 1997,the annual catch of chub mackerel has been decreasing. It is necessary to assess its stock size and manage it properly. The stock assessment and risk analysis of the management strategy for chub mackerel was carried out using a Bayesian surplus production model,and the stock status was determined. The stock biomass,annual total allowable catch and probability that the stock would collapse in the next 5 years were also estimated. The results indicated that the stock of chub mackerel in the East China Sea and the Yellow sea was in the state of"overfishing",but not overfished in 2006. The decision analysis showed that harvest rate of 0. 3 was the optimum management regulation with precautionary approach,under this harvest rate the average stock biomass would increase from 451 thousand tons in 2006 to 871 thousand tons in 2011,the probability that stock biomass in 2011 reaching BMSY would be 0. 47,and the probability of having an overfished stock would be 0.

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