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Mann-Kendall检验及其在河流悬沙浓度时间序列分析中的运用

作  者:
张璐;周跃
单  位:
昆明理工大学环境科学与工程学院
关键词:
Mann-Kendall检验;趋势;突变;河流悬沙浓度时间序列;盘龙河
摘  要:
探讨了Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验在时间序列分析方面的应用,并以云南省文山州盘龙河为例,把它运用到河流悬沙浓度时间序列的趋势分析和突变分析研究中。结果表明:①M-K检验同样适用于河流悬沙浓度的趋势与突变分析;②盘龙河自20世纪60年代初至90年代末河流悬沙浓度一直表现为波动上升趋势,1999年后有下降的迹象;③盘龙河的河流悬沙浓度自20世纪60年代以来存在着两个明显的突变点,其一在1973年,其二在1999年。
译  名:
Mann-Kendall Examination and Application in the Analysis of the Time Series for Silt Concentration in the River
作  者:
Zhang Lu,Zhou Yue(Environmental Science & Engineering College of Kunming Tech.University,Kunming of Yunan Province,650093)
关键词:
Mann-Kendall Examination,Trend,Time Ranks at the Breaking Silt Concentration of River,Panlong River
摘  要:
The essay probes into the application of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric rank tests in the time series analysis,and use it into the research of trend analysis and breaking analysis.The result shows that: 1) M-K examination also fit the trend and breaking analysis on the silt concentration in the river;2) since the initial 1960s to the end of 1990s,the silt concentration of Panlong River appeared the fluctuating upwardly,while appeared downwardly after 1999;3) there were two breaking points appeared for the silt concentration of Panlong River since 1960s,one was in 1973 and the other was in 1999.

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