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2000~2015年苏州市土地利用效益动态测度及障碍追踪分析

作  者:
朱文娟;孙华
关键词:
TOPSIS模型;障碍度;土地利用;曲线拟合
摘  要:
科学评价土地利用效益,动态追踪障碍因子可为后续土地高效利用提供理论基础与现实依据.本文运用改进熵权TOPSIS模型从"经济-社会-生态"三维视角对苏州市2000~2015年土地利用效益进行测算,并对其演变态势、速度、效益加速度进行了定量研究及效益预测,同时引入障碍度模型进行障碍因子动态追踪分析.结果表明:(1)苏州市土地利用综合效益由2000年的0.2287逐步提升到2015年的0.6765,实现了"低级-中级-良好"的梯度跨越,(2)综合效益增长速度经历"波动剧烈-快速上升-趋于平稳"的演变过程,而效益加速度变化明显滞后于土地效益速度且波动幅度更大,2010年后逐渐减缓;(3)土地利用效益制约因素经历了"社会-经济-生态"主导的转变,城市人均公共绿地面积、工业固废排放量、土地利用多样性指数、人均建设用地面积、服务业、高新技术产业总产值、固体废弃物综合利用率、城镇化率等成为制约苏州市土地利用效益增长的关键因素;研究旨在明晰土地利用效益演变规律及存在的问题,以便为今后苏州市土地利用规划、土地利用结构调整提供参考.
作  者:
ZHU Wen-juan;SUN Hua;College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University;
单  位:
ZHU Wen-juan%SUN Hua%College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University
关键词:
TOPSIS model;;Obstacle degree;;Land use;;Curve fitting
摘  要:
Scientific evaluation for land use efficiency and dynamic tracking for obstacle factors would provide the theoretical and practical basis for the efficient land use in the future. The improved entropy-weighted TOPSIS model was used to measure the land use efficiency of Suzhou in 2000-2015 from the perspective of "economy-society-ecology", and its evolution, speed and benefit acceleration were quantified and predicted. At the same time, the obstacle degree model was introduced to track the dynamics of obstacle factors. The results showed that:(1) The comprehensive benefit of land use in Suzhou was gradually increased from 0.2287 in 2000 to 0.6765 in 2015 across "lower-intermediate-good" gradients, and still had a huge potential for improvement;(2) The growth rate of comprehensive benefit experienced the evolution process of "fluctuating violent-rapid rising-tending to be stable".The change in the acceleration of land efficiency lagged behind its speed. The fluctuation range of the acceleration of land efficiency was larger, and gradually slowed down after 2010;(3) The dominant constraints of land use efficiency transformed from social, economy to ecology. The city public green area per person, discharge amount of industrial solid waste, land use diversity index, construction land area per person, total output value of new and high technology industry, comprehensive utilization ratio of solid waste, and urbanization rate were the key factors to restricting the land use efficiency in Suzhou. The results would clarify the evolution law and existing problems of land use efficiency and provide references for land use planning, structure adjustment and industrial reform in Suzhou in future.

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