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Position: Home > Articles > A Study on Rice Drought Risk under Future Climate Change in Guizhou province Water Saving Irrigation 2018 (5) 51-56

未来气候变化情景下贵州省水稻干旱风险研究

作  者：
韩会庆;张娇艳;张英佳;王喆;蔡广鹏
关键词：
干旱风险;气候变化;水稻干旱;贵州省
摘  要：
利用CMIP5全球气候模式预估的逐日降水资料,通过降水距平百分率构建水稻干旱风险评估模型,对未来气候变化情景下贵州省水稻移栽分蘖期、拔节孕穗期、抽穗成熟期和全发育期的干旱风险进行评估。结果表明:RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,贵州省水稻各发育期干旱风险呈现拔节孕穗期﹥抽穗成熟期﹥移栽分蘖期。2081-2100年各情景下贵州省水稻全发育期干旱风险高于2016-2035年。2016-2035年贵州省水稻各发育期和全发育期干旱风险空间差异较大。2046-2065年和2081-2100年贵州省水稻各发育期和全发育期干旱风险空间基本呈现北部和东部较高,南部和西部较低的特点。
译  名：
A Study on Rice Drought Risk under Future Climate Change in Guizhou province
作  者：
HAN Hui-qing;ZHANG Jiao-yan;ZHANG Ying-jia;WANG Zhe;CAI Guang-peng;College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Guizhou Institute of Technology;Guizhou Climate Center;College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Guizhou Normal University;
单  位：
HAN Hui-qing%ZHANG Jiao-yan%ZHANG Ying-jia%WANG Zhe%CAI Guang-peng%College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Guizhou Institute of Technology%Guizhou Climate Center%College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Guizhou Normal University
关键词：
drought risk;;climate change;;rice drought;;growth stage;;Guizhou Province
摘  要：
In this paper,the rice drought risk assessment model is established by precipitation anomaly percentage and the rice drought risk in transplanting-tillering stage,jointing-booting stage,heading-maturity stage and whole growth stage in Guizhou province is assessed based on the prediction data of daily precipitation data of CMIP5 global climate model. The results show that: under RCP2.6 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 condition,the order of rice drought risk in Guizhou province in each growth stage from large to small is jointing-booting stage,heading-maturity stage and transplanting-tillering stage; the rice drought risk in 2081 to 2100 is higher than that in 2016-2035; there are great spatial differences among each growth stage and whole growth stage for rice drought risk in 2016 to 2035; the rice drought risk in 2046 to 2065 and2081 to 2100 in north and east parts was higher than that in south and west parts.

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