中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会
Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS China Association of Agricultural Science Societies
En
Ch
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 主办

AI检索

订阅

返回顶部
当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于人口与建设用地关系的建设用地规模预测——以江西省南昌市为例 湖北农业科学 2017,56 (20) 3936-3940
Position: Home > Articles > Prediction of Construction Land Scale of Nanchang City Based on the Relationship between Population and Construction Land Hubei Agricultural Sciences 2017,56 (20) 3936-3940

基于人口与建设用地关系的建设用地规模预测——以江西省南昌市为例

作  者：
张周权;程朋根;叶露
单  位：
东华理工大学测绘工程学院
关键词：
计量经济学;城市建设用地;Zipf法则;双对数方程;规模预测
摘  要：
城市化一直是中国城市发展的主旋律,城市建设用地规模的预测也一直是城市化过程中的热点问题。根据南昌市2002-2010年人口和建设用地统计数据,利用Zipf法则等方法预测南昌市的人口规模,然后借鉴计量经济学方法,构建了人口与建设用地规模之间的双对数方程,并通过Pearson相关性分析、VAR模型分析、协整性检验等方法进行检验和纠正。同时,对2011-2014年南昌市的建设用地规模进行预测和检验,发现其预测结果的相对误差都不超过5%,预测出2020年南昌市市区的建设用地规模为288.343 km~2。
译  名：
Prediction of Construction Land Scale of Nanchang City Based on the Relationship between Population and Construction Land
作  者：
ZHANG Zhou-quan;CHENG Peng-gen;YE Lu;Faculty of Geomatics,East China University of Technology;Key Laboratory of Watershed Ecology and Geographical Environment Monitoring,National Administration of Surveying,Mapping and Geoinformation;
单  位：
Faculty of Geomatics,East China University of Technology%Key Laboratory of Watershed Ecology and Geographical Environment Monitoring,National Administration of Surveying,Mapping and Geoinformation
关键词：
econometric;;urban construction land;;Zipf's law;;double logarithmic equation;;scale prediction
摘  要：
Urbanization has always been the main theme of China 's urban development, and the prediction of the size of urban construction land has always been a hot issue in the process of urbanization. The characteristic of this method is to combine the city's future development goal with the historical development trend. Based on the statistical data of population and construction land from 2002 to 2010 in Nanchang city, forecast the size of the population of Nanchang by Zipf 's law,then using econometric methods, constructing the double logarithmic equation about the relationship of population and the scale of urban construction, and through pearson correlation analysis, VAR model analysis, cointegration test and other methods to test and correct. According to this way, the size of construction land in Nanchang city of 2011-2014 was forecasted and tested, we found the relative error of the prediction results were not less than 5%. Finally, The forecast value of the construction land scale of Nanchang city in 2020 was 288.343 km~2.

相似文章

导出引用
计量
文章访问数: 11
HTML全文浏览量: 0
PDF下载量: 0

所属期刊

推荐期刊

友情链接Friendly link
农业信息研究所Agricultural information institute 农业智能知识服务平台Agricultural intelligent knowledge service platform 农业学术服务平台Agricultural Knowledge Service System 中国知网CNKI 维普网VIP 万方WANFANG DATA
联系我们Contact us

电话Tell：010-82109652-808

邮箱E-mail：agrijournal@caas.cn

服务Service
关于我们About us 意见建议Opinions and suggest
版权说明Copyright
单位：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 © 2017中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 ICP备案号：京ICP备09089781号-46