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Position: Home > Articles > Prospects of China's sugar market in 2017—2026 World Agriculture 2017 (8) 147-151+251

2017—2026年中国食糖市场形势展望

作  者：
马凯;朱亚伟;徐雪
单  位：
农业部农村经济研究中心
关键词：
食糖产业;生产;消费;贸易;价格
摘  要：
中国是世界上重要的食糖生产国、消费国和贸易国,中国食糖市场较为开放,国内外食糖市场联系紧密。本文对2016年中国食糖市场运行情况进行了分析回顾,并采用中国农业科学院农业信息研究所的中国农产品监测预警系统(CAMES),对未来10年中国食糖市场供需形势做出预测,基期数据主要来自统计部门、行业组织及农业部糖料预警监测团队的监测数据。未来10年,预计中国糖料种植面积将保持基本稳定,糖料单产有所提升,食糖产量稳中略增;受人口增加、城镇化进程加快等因素影响,食糖消费规模稳中趋增;食糖价格受多种不确定因素影响,仍会有较大波动;受国内产不足需基本面和国内外价差影响,中国仍将保持较大的食糖进口规模。
译  名：
Prospects of China's sugar market in 2017—2026
作  者：
MA Kai;ZHU Yawei;XU Xue;
摘  要：
China is an important sugar producer,consumer and trading country in the world,China's sugar market is relatively open and have close link with international sugar market.In 2016,China's sugar iudustry faces serveral difficulties production decreased for the second consecutive year,the consumption of sugar rises slightly,sugar imports fell sharply,and the gap between supply and demand expended.This paper analyzes the operation of China's sugar market in 2016,and uses the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System(CAMES)of the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences to forecast the supply and demand situation of China's sugar market in the next 10 years.The base data mainly comes from statistics department,industry organization and the sugar monitoring team from Ministry of Agriculture.Over the next 10 years,China's sugar planting area is expected to remain basically stable and the yield will be improved,which led to a slight increase in sugar production.By the increase in population,urbanization and other factors,sugar consumption will steadily increase.Affected by variety of uncertainties,sugar prices will still fluctuate significantly.Due to domestic demand gap and domestic and foreign spreads,China will maintain a large scale of sugar imports.

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